In the first trading session of the week yesterday (February 17), increased selling pressure on bluechip stocks caused the VN-Index to reverse and decrease after 2 consecutive sessions of improvement. Meanwhile, the group of small and medium-sized stocks is trading explosively with many big wave stocks.
Liquidity increased sharply in the stock market compared to previous sessions, showing active participation in the context of market fluctuations. Meanwhile, foreign investors continue to maintain the net selling trend. This is the 11th consecutive session as a warning signal about investment psychology from foreign countries.
In yesterday's trading session (February 17), in addition to the pressure to sell bluechip shares from domestic investors, foreign investors also increased pressure on the general market by boosting the sale of large stocks and net sold more than VND650 billion in the session of February 17.
Of which, focusing on the HOSE floor with this group having the strongest net selling of MWG shares, worth VND155.24 billion, equivalent to a net selling volume of VND2.86 million units. Next were VNM net sold for VND 394.4 billion and FPT was net sold for VND 89.5 billion.
In the analysis report on the movement of foreign capital flows, analysts from Shinhan Securities said that the sideways market is partly due to foreign investors continuously selling net. Normally, foreign funds will net buy (in both volume and value) in January each year because this is the time of restructuring the portfolios of global investment funds, but in January 2025, foreign investors net sold 144 million shares, equivalent to 6.5 trillion VND on HOSE, according to data from Fiinpro.
Therefore, the suspension of foreign investors will have a positive impact on the market. However, Shinhan Securities believes that the trend of foreign investors selling net and focusing on selling in large stocks will continue at least in the first quarter of 2025 as Vietnamese stocks are waiting for supporting information from market upgrading so that foreign capital can return.
In 2024, the Vietnamese stock market recorded a number of changes in policies applied to foreign investors, thereby creating a premise to resolve problems related to upgrading.
When assessing the Vietnamese stock market, up to now, the criteria have basically been met to be able to upgrade from the Border Market to the Secondary New flour market according to FTSE's standards.
Thus, the prospect of the Vietnamese stock market being upgraded in 2025 is very positive.
In the upcoming March assessment period, investors expect FTSE to have an objective and positive view of the solutions that Vietnam has implemented. By the September assessment period, the Vietnamese stock market can expect to be upgraded.
Factors to monitor to expect a reversal of foreign capital flows include: Vietnam market is upgraded and global interest rates (Fed and US government bonds for 10 years) decreased or stabilized in the new price range. When interest rates are stable, the exchange rate will also be stable. Once these factors appear simultaneously, foreign capital will return," Shinhan Securities commented.
In the context of waiting for unstable fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates to gradually decrease or be stable at a new level, investors can choose to invest in defense stocks with low fluctuations or have private stories that are less affected by foreign trading activities.
