"Bright Star" economic growth
According to Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong, member of the Prime Minister's Policy Advisory Council, Vice President of the Vietnam Association of Economic Sciences, forecasts that the GDP in 2025 is estimated to reach about 500 billion USD, 64 times higher than in 1986. With an average income per capita of about 5,000 USD, Vietnam has officially surpassed the threshold to become a country with a high average income.
"With an average growth rate of about 7% per year in recent times, we are among the top in Asia and are always a "bright star" in the world's economic growth sky. Import and export of goods has continuously increased, putting Vietnam in the group of 20 leading trading countries in the world. We have also become an important production center of the world in the textile, footwear and electronics industries with many global FDI enterprises choosing Vietnam as their base" - Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong emphasized.
However, looking at reality, Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong pointed out that the internal strength of the economy has not been maximized. Exports depend mainly on the FDI sector (accounting for over 70%). The connection and spread from the FDI sector to domestic enterprises is still very limited. The domestic value-added content of key export goods only accounts for about 30 to 35%.
On the other hand, domestic production mainly focuses on processing and assembling, mainly taking on stages with low added value in the value chain and lying at the bottom of the smile curve. As a result, Vietnam's labor productivity is among the lowest in the world and is slow to improve. If it does not change, we will miss the opportunity of the golden population period and risk falling into the middle-income trap.
The current context of the world economy is full of fluctuations, with geopolitical tensions, technological competition, and the increasing trend of national protectionism, but Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong emphasized that it is in that challenge that the door to new opportunities is wide open.
Trends such as the green revolution, digital transformation, artificial intelligence, and automation are changing the structure of production and the position of global trade. In many new fields, the gap between developed and developing countries is considered to be on the starting line. Many countries have adjusted their strategies, seeking to participate more deeply in the global value chain to increase resilience and take advantage of new opportunities.
"If appropriate and timely actions are taken, Vietnam can participate in emerging and high-tech industries from the beginning, becoming an important link in the global supply chain, instead of stopping at processing and assembling" - Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong affirmed.
Attractive destinations for investment capital
At the Vietnam New Economics Forum 2025, HSBC Vietnam Bank General Director Tim Evans assessed - Vietnam has emerged as an attractive destination as investment capital shifts strongly to more stable areas, with the goal of maintaining positive results and setting a growth target of up to 8% in 2025.
According to HSBC representative, Vietnam's economic prospects are attracting great attention from investors. When the digital economy is forecast to contribute 30% of GDP, the Government aims to enter the top 50 on the E-Government Development Index and expand the network with 20 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) signed, effective or in the process of negotiation and completion.
The growth momentum in the coming period is determined to come from digital transformation, high technology and international integration. Along with that, persistent efforts in developing the private economic sector are the key driver of long-term growth - Mr. Tim Evans commented.
In addition, Mr. Tim Evans also said that Vietnam is possessing a favorable business environment, strengthening investor confidence, along with the advantage of high-quality human resources, increasingly complete infrastructure and the trend of increasing businesses participating in the international capital market.
"On October 8, 2025, FTSE Russell will announce an assessment of the possibility of upgrading the Vietnamese stock market. If upgraded to emerging Market status, Vietnam has the opportunity to attract billions of USD through passive and active investment funds. At the same time, the establishment of the International Financial Center will also be a strong driving force for the economy in the coming period" - Mr. Tim Evans assessed.
