According to data from the General Statistics Office (GSO), Vietnam's real GDP growth rate in the second quarter of 2025 will reach 7.96% (far exceeding the forecast of many financial institutions). In the first 6 months of the year, the Vietnamese economy grew 7.52% over the same period, also the highest increase in the first half of the year since 2011.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) assessed that Vietnam's real GDP in the second quarter of 2025 has recovered strongly. This increase is far exceeding Bloomberg's forecast of 6.85% and UOB's forecast of 6.1%, as well as compared to the adjusted level of the first quarter of 2025 of 7.05%.
Notably, in the first half of the year, Vietnam's export turnover increased by 14.4% over the same period last year, reaching 219 billion USD, while imports increased by 17.9%, reaching 212 billion USD. These figures are equivalent to the growth rate for the whole year of 2024 (export increased by 14%, import increased by 16%).
UOB experts estimate that Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 will be 0.9 percentage points higher than the initial baseline forecast, to 6.9% (compared to the previous forecast of 6.0%).
In the last two quarters of the year alone, UOB forecasts GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 at about 6.4%. Under this condition, the implemented FDI capital flow is expected to reach about 20 billion USD this year.
For overall inflation and core inflation still below the official target of 4.5% in the first half of 2025 and most of 2024, UOB experts believe that the State Bank is likely to consider loosening monetary policy.
However, developments in the foreign exchange market are also an important factor that the State Bank needs to consider. VND is the strongest devaluation currency in Asia in the first half of 2025, down 2.5% against the USD.
According to UOB, the positive growth results of the economy in general may have reduced the pressure to loosen policy. Therefore, UOB expects the State Bank to keep the current policy interest rate unchanged, with the refinancing interest rate maintained at 4.50%.
However, if the domestic business situation and the labor market deteriorate significantly in the next 1 - 2 quarters, UOB experts believe that the State Bank can lower the policy rate to a low level once during the COVID-19 period of 4% and then a 50 basis point reduction to 3.5%, with the foreign exchange market stable and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) starting to implement interest rate cuts.
Currently, UOB's base scenario is still that the State Bank will not change its monetary management policy.
UOB forecasts that the VND will remain near a low in the trading range against the USD until the end of the third quarter of 2025. However, in the fourth quarter of 2025, the VND may begin to recover in line with the general recovery trend of Asian currencies when trade instability eases.
UOB Bank forecasts that in the third quarter of 2025, the USD/VND exchange rate will reach VND 26,400, in the fourth quarter of 2025 it will reach VND 26,200, in the first quarter of 2026 it will reach VND 26,000 and in the second quarter of 2026 it will reach VND 25,800.
