According to the report of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) released at the end of July, in the ASEAN+3 group, this year Vietnam is forecast to have the highest growth rate, followed by the Philippines (5.6%) and Cambodia (5.2%).
This positive adjustment is based on Vietnam's positive economic results in the first half of the year. Accordingly, Vietnam's GDP in the first 6 months of 2025 achieved a growth rate of 7.52%, the highest level in many years, thanks to domestic consumption, exports and a strong recovery in the manufacturing and service sectors.
AMRO believes that Vietnam has enough policy space to support the economy when needed. Reforms to improve the investment environment and infrastructure are also helping Vietnam strengthen its position.
"However, in addition to short-term goals, Vietnam needs to continue to integrate more deeply with regional economies to effectively attract foreign direct investment" - AMRO experts noted.
In early July, United Overseas Bank (UOB) also adjusted its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 to 6.9%, instead of the previous 6%.
UOB assessed that Vietnam's real GDP in the second quarter of 2025 has recovered strongly. This increase is far exceeding Bloomberg's forecast of 6.85% and UOB's forecast of 6.1%, as well as compared to the adjusted level of the first quarter of 2025 of 7.05%.
Notably, in the first half of the year, Vietnam's export turnover increased by 14.4% over the same period last year, reaching 219 billion USD, while imports increased by 17.9%, reaching 212 billion USD. These figures are equivalent to the growth rate for the whole year of 2024 (export increased by 14%, import increased by 16%).
In the last two quarters of the year alone, UOB forecasts GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 at about 6.4%. Under this condition, the implemented FDI capital flow is expected to reach about 20 billion USD this year.
Regarding solutions to achieve the growth target for the whole year, Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong - Director of the Statistics Office said that it is necessary to continue to maintain a stable macro environment, creating confidence for investors and people. Closely monitor developments in world prices, especially energy and food prices, to have timely response measures. Continue to operate an integrated and flexible pre-inflationary policy, ensuring inflation control within the set targets.
"Must resolutely remove all bottlenecks in administrative procedures, site clearance, and construction resources to speed up the construction progress of projects, especially key transport infrastructure projects of the country. stimulate exports and maximize FTA advantages.
Strengthen trade promotion, seek and expand new markets, diversify export products. Continue to maintain double-digit export turnover growth to contribute greatly to GDP growth. Continue to improve the investment and business environment, make policies transparent, and simplify administrative procedures to attract and improve the quality of FDI capital" - Ms. Huong emphasized.
