October 8, 2025 was a historic day for the Vietnamese stock market when FTSE Russell announced the market upgrade to Emerging Market.
The upgrade will take effect on September 21, 2026. However, this decision depends on a temporary assessment in March 2026 to determine the progress of the implementation of the ability to access global brokers (global brokers). FTSE Russell emphasizes that this is an essential factor to support index replication.
Currently, the scale of FTSE Emerging All Cap Index tracking funds is managing more than 100 billion USD in assets. The inclusion of Vietnam in the FTSE Secondary Emerging Market Index will automatically trigger purchasing activities from passive funds (ETFs and institutional trust funds) referring to major indexes such as FTSE All-World and FTSE EM.
According to KBSV's estimate, the reference passive capital flow according to the FTSE Emerging index could reach about 0.7 - 1 billion USD, based on the expected capitalization ratio of the Vietnamese market (about 0.5 - 0.8%, corresponding to the capitalization of the Philippines and Kuwait).
KBSV assessed that from the upgrade, stocks in the VN30 group are expected to benefit mainly. In particular, leading stocks that meet the criteria of capitalization and liquidity such as VCB, MSN, VNM, HPG, VIC, VHM, SSI... will be the leading candidates to be added to the index basket. In addition, stocks with good growth prospects and "room" for foreign investors will also be in the reach of active funds.
In addition, the group of securities companies, especially those with the largest brokerage market share for foreign organizations such as SSI, HCM, and VCI, will also benefit directly from the increase in profits and transaction fees.
According to estimates by Maybank Investment Bank (MSVN), the stocks that benefit mainly from FTSE's upgrading of the Vietnamese stock market will be VIC and VHM, with capital flow reaching nearly 400 million USD. Thanks to the market capitalization of many stocks increased in the past year and some foreign room stocks, the number of Vietnamese stocks eligible to participate in FTSE's emerging indexes has increased from 6 to 9 codes. For example, FPT has now become a eligible name thanks to expanding foreign rooms; LPB and STB are also on the list thanks to increased market capitalization.
In addition to the above list, there is also a list of 15 potential stocks that only lack 1 criterion. In which, the group that did not meet the conditions for capitalization (needed at least VND 95,000 billion) includes SSI, BSR, VJC and SHB. The group of problems that can be resolved soon include HVN (transaction restrictions due to late submission of Financial Statements 2022) and VPL (grants under 12 months and below 50% of the required amount). These businesses can completely proactively remove obstacles in the short term.
Foreign ownership ratio (FOL) and Free Float group: This is the largest group, stuck with mechanistic barriers: (1) FOL is too low, including 7 large banks and a retail code: CTG, TCB, VPB, MBB, ACB, MWG and HDB. (2) Free Float problems below 5% include BID and GVR.
