Great motivation from internal factors
Assessing the prospects of the Vietnamese stock market in 2025, Mr. Dao Hong Duong - Director of Industry and Stock Analysis, VPBank Securities Joint Stock Company (VPBankS) commented that the biggest driving force for the expected growth of the stock market in the coming time is Vietnam's internal factors.
Accordingly, strong economic growth in the first three quarters of the year, reaching 6.8% and the expectation for the whole year will be at 7%, opening up an optimistic outlook for the economy next year.
Many economic experts also believe that the growth target for 2025 will not be lower than that of 2024, creating strong momentum for the market.
According to VPBankS experts, macroeconomic policies play an important role. In the face of complex international fluctuations, the Government may focus more on stimulating domestic consumption and production, while boosting infrastructure investment. This promises to bring opportunities to the retail, consumer, industrial and real estate sectors.
On November 2, 2024, Circular No. 68/2024/TT-BTC officially took effect with many notable points, in which the important content is to remove the mandatory margin requirement for foreign investors. Foreign institutional investors can trade to buy stocks without requiring sufficient funds when placing orders (Non Pre-funding).
In addition, at the 8th Session, the 15th National Assembly passed the Law amending and supplementing a number of articles of the Securities Law in the direction of improving transparency and efficiency. The amended Securities Law is assessed to have introduced many important innovations to solve problems of the Vietnamese securities market, while creating momentum for sustainable development in the new period. The 15th National Assembly also passed many laws and policies related to planning, investment, financial markets, and real estate.
These are important driving forces and steps for the Vietnamese stock market in the process of upgrading. It is expected that in 2025, besides the economic recovery that plays a fundamental role, the story of upgrading the Vietnamese stock market will still be the most important highlight.
Opportunities from international cash flow
Regarding the international context, Mr. Tran Hoang Son - VPBankS Market Strategy Director - said that the loose monetary policy globally is a fundamental factor supporting the recovery of the asset market, including stocks, gold and digital assets. The US stock market benefits from solid economic growth, recovering corporate profits, cooling inflation and the FED's loose monetary policy.
Regarding the Vietnamese market, Mr. Son believes that exchange rates and foreign capital flows are two important factors affecting the Vietnamese stock market. In 2024, the market witnessed the largest net capital withdrawal cycle of foreign investors in the past 20 years. According to Mr. Son, net selling pressure will ease in late 2024 and early 2025.
In particular, the expert has high expectations that the Vietnamese stock market will be upgraded in the second half of 2025. Mr. Son predicts that market liquidity will be flat in the first half of 2025 and increase again from August to September 2025, when the upgrade story is activated. "The VN-Index is forecasted to peak at over 1,400 points in 2025 and fluctuate around 1,350 points on average," Mr. Son shared.
Regarding the impact of Donald Trump’s re-election as US President, Michael Kokalari, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at VinaCapital, said that Trump’s victory is unlikely to have a strong negative impact on Vietnam’s economy. On the contrary, if the US dollar weakens and US trade protection policies are strengthened, Vietnam could benefit from the shift of the supply chain from China.
“This brings great opportunities for industrial real estate businesses as the demand for land lease and factory construction in Vietnam increases,” the expert commented.
