The market recovered impressively
In 2025, the Vietnamese stock market will expand in both scale and liquidity and is impressive with a rapid recovery. In April, the VN-Index experienced a sharp decline of up to 15.4% due to information related to tariffs, causing anxiety to cover the market and many investors chose to sell off and withdraw money to preserve capital. During the same period, foreign investors were net selling strongly, creating more pressure on the performance of the VN-Index...
However, right after the bottom formed in that state of panic, the market entered a period of strong recovery. As of the end of November, the VN-Index recorded a growth rate of 31.1% compared to the beginning of the year, thereby becoming one of the markets with the best growth rate in Asia. This development shows that important recovery sessions often appear very quickly, when the majority of investors are still cautious or have left the market.
A more notable point is the quite obvious return of cash flow. The average trading value of the whole market reached about VND27,000 billion per session, an increase of more than 40% compared to 2024 and there were times when liquidity exploded up to VND70,000-80,000 billion.
Prospects for 2026: Enjoy upgrading, attractive valuation, big IPO again
Entering 2026, Vietnam is possessing a relatively favorable macro foundation with economic growth remaining high, inflation being controlled and the private economic sector playing an increasingly prominent role. These are important factors that create a foundation to support the profit prospects of listed enterprises in the medium and long term.
In addition, the stock market is expected to continue to improve in quality and efficiency thanks to the forces from within the economy, including boosting spending on infrastructure, maintaining active FDI inflows and an increasingly strong domestic investor force.
SSI Research believes that the market will move to a new acceleration phase of the growth cycle, driven by three main drivers including institutional reform, upgrading expectations and cyclical capital flow rotation.
In that context, market valuations are still attractive with the forecast P/E for 2025-2026 of the VN-Index being 13.9x and 12x respectively, lower than the 10-year average (14x) and below the valuation zone where the market has gradually entered the exciting period (15-16x).
Based on the growth rate of corporate profits and the ability to improve valuation thanks to new capital flows, SSI Research forecasts that the VN-Index can reach the 1,800 point mark in 2026. One of the important catalysts is the fact that Vietnam was upgraded by FTSE Russell to the emerging market group and expected to continue to meet MSCI Emerging Markets standards, thereby attracting about 1.6 billion USD from ETF funds according to estimates.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Director of Strategic Investment of DG Capital, analyzed that the FED's continued interest rate cut will be a good signal for the Vietnamese stock market. This will likely cause the USD to continue to weaken, and exchange rate pressure over the past 2 years could cool down. The strong net selling trend of foreign investors in the past 2 years also has a significant reason from exchange rate factors. Therefore, when the exchange rate pressure cools down, it is expected that foreign cash flow may decrease net selling and even reverse net buying in 2026.
Regarding domestic monetary policy, it can be seen that the orientation of the Government and the State Bank is still aimed at maintaining low interest rates to support economic growth. As we move into the first months of the year, the credit room opened for 2026 will be the driving force to help the market move up and liquidity improve.
"According to the baseline scenario, if foreign capital flows are positive, the VN-Index can move in the range of 1,816-2,040 points, based on the profit growth of the whole market of about 17-18%. However, the market's movement context depends largely on foreign investors as well as the macroeconomic and institutional situation in 2026" - Dr. Phuong commented.
HSC Securities Company forecasts that the VN-Index will reach 1,958 points in the next 12 months, by the end of fiscal 2026, with a bottom-up strategy, including new IPO, cash dividends and wide market coverage. Forecasting a growth of 7.6% for non- danh sach enterprises, HSC expects the bull market to be driven by liquidity, restructuring and macro factors in 2026.
VN-Index continues to set a new peak
Despite strong differentiation in the pillar stocks group, the VN Index was still recorded to increase by more than 10 points and set a new peak approaching the historical threshold of 1,800 points.
In the trading session on December 24, Vingroup stocks had opposite movements, when VIC and VPL decreased, while VHM and VRE increased. However, because VHM was held to a higher ceiling, while VIC and VPL only decreased slightly, Vingroup still contributed nearly 7 points to the VN-Index. In addition to the Vingroup group, the index also received support from large stocks, most of which are stocks in the notable banking and securities group such as STB, VPB, LPB, SSI...
At the end of the session on December 24, the VN Index increased by 10.67 points, equivalent to 0.6%, to 1,782.8 points. Despite the strong increase, the HoSE electricity board is leaning towards red with 169 codes down compared to 144 codes up. In contrast to the heat of the score, HoSE's liquidity continued to cool down. Specifically, the entire HoSE exchange only has 790 million shares transferred, equivalent to a trading value of more than VND 24,300 billion.
The index's increase continues to be contributed by foreign investors. Yesterday's session, this group net bought more than VND1,000 billion on the HoSE.
