Macro foundation from upgrading expectations and stability
One of the most important macro drivers that the market is paying attention to is the effort to upgrade national credit rating.
According to Mr. Vu Viet Linh - Deputy Director of Customer Analysis Department organized at Maybank Investment Bank (Vietnam), Vietnam is getting closer to the "Investment Grade" (investment-worthy level). He predicted that this could happen in 2028 (positive scenario) or 2030 (baseline scenario).
Mr. Linh emphasized that upgrading the national credit rating is one of the four strategic pillars to mobilize capital for development goals, in addition to developing the bond market, upgrading the stock market to the Emerging Market Group (EM) and building an international financial center.
According to Maybank, achieving Investment Grade can bring great benefits, first of all helping to reduce borrowing costs, reducing from 150 - 300 basis points; Next of that is helping to attract huge capital from pension funds, insurance companies and national investment funds; Sending signals on macroeconomic stability, thereby reducing exchange rate fluctuations and risk costs; Contributing to helping domestic enterprises improve credit ratings.
Mr. Linh believes that this event could create "explosive years" for the Vietnamese stock market, even bigger and more sustainable than the EM upgrade event.
To achieve this goal, Vietnam is making efforts to remove legal barriers, limit risks in the banking system and improve foreign exchange cushions. The Government has set a target of a capital assurance ratio (CAR) for the entire banking industry at 12% by 2030 (according to Decision 412) and a stock market capitalization of 120% of GDP.
Strengthening the stable outlook, Lawyer Le Duong from PTN Legal Company affirmed that economic development based on a stable institutional foundation helps investors feel secure. He emphasized that policies to keep the market healthy, such as the bond market in recent times, will help the market develop more transparently and be a driving force for core investment channels to grow.
Real Estate Market: Waiting for policy "denomination"
For the real estate market, experts see this as a promising market but is also in a "struggling" period.
Sharing at the "attraction of Asset Lxes" Seminar, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, Director of the Institute for Research and Development of Global Financial and Real Estate Markets, assessed that the real estate market is in dire need of capital and has good prospects, but "we are also struggling with risks". He said that the market needs help balance opportunities and risks, especially reducing real estate prices in big cities.
However, there are signs of improvement. Mr. Trinh Ha - strategic expert at Exness Investment Bank - pointed out that the business results of the third quarter of 2025 of the real estate business group are "very good" and are expected to receive better cash flow. He also noted that real estate credit in 2025 will account for about 25% (perhaps higher in practice) and predicted that credit growth in 2026 will increase a lot.
Experts also hope that by 2026, when new legal regulations (such as the revised Land Law and Real Estate Business Law) have "soaked" the market, it will create a more solid foundation for the development of this investment channel.
Stock market: Opportunities from growth and upgrading
After recording an impressive increase of 29% of the VN-Index in 2025, the stock market (TSK) is still considered a channel with many opportunities.
According to Mr. Vu Duy Khanh, Director of the Analysis Center at SmartInvest Securities JSC, in the next 2-3 months, the stock market is still an opportunity. He predicted that the upcoming digital cycle will be adjusted down, gold may be adjusted but the medium term will still be good, while there are still opportunities in the stock market in the context of businesses' business results improving.
Looking at the long term, Mr. Khanh emphasized that major Resolutions from the Government are creating great momentum, while requiring Vietnamese enterprises to grow rapidly to overcome the "middle-income trap".
Sharing the same view on the positive outlook, Mr. Vu Viet Linh (Maybank) optimistically said that the market "has only reached half of the price increase cycle". He recommended prioritizing leading private enterprises, in line with the national support program, especially infrastructure (rail, road, energy) and financial institutions.
