Cash flow returns to the market
In the past week, it is worth noting that the liquidity of the stock market continued to improve to about VND17,000 billion/session, helping to absorb the pressure of short-term interest rates well and bringing the market closer to the strong resistance of 1,300 points.
Cash flow continues to be bustling to seek opportunities in small and medium-sized stocks, while pillar stocks still play a supporting role, helping the VN-Index approach the historical peak of 1,300 points. However, the hesitant sentiment also appeared quite clearly in the last two sessions of the week when the index approached this resistance level.
With improved liquidity in recent weeks, short-term cash flow has shown signs of flowing into the market. Cash flow has participated more strongly, trading value has increased compared to the first 2 weeks of the month, including the period before Tet. Many stocks recorded strong increases in liquidity. Basic stocks, banking stocks, real estate stocks or securities, and construction stocks recorded quite good price fluctuations. This is still confirming the upward trend of the market in the coming period.
However, according to analysts, this increase is just the beginning, and has not been as expected by investors. To have a more positive market trend, liquidity needs to increase by about 30-40% compared to the current level.
Commenting on the market's movement trend in the new week, experts from VPS Securities Company said that the resistance zone of 1,300 points will still be a challenge for the market in the short term. The increase and accumulation adjustment around the 1,300-point mark may take place 2 - 5 sessions before the market can overcome, this could be a more likely scenario even though the accumulation process takes more time.
Experts from Yuanta Securities Vietnam believe that if the VN-Index has not penetrated the support level of 1,275 points, the correction may quickly end and the increase will continue in the following week.
Many groups of stocks are positively evaluated
In the scenario of a flourishing market, to have sustainable growth, it will be necessary to have the return of leading stocks. In the newly published market report, FiinGroup analysts commented that policies to promote public investment and credit growth to support the GDP target of 8% are expected to continue to create momentum for growth or recovery of some industries such as banking, real estate, construction and materials, information technology, utilities, etc. Thereby becoming an important catalyst for stock prices in 2025.
In particular, FiinGroup assessed that the prospect of good profits, gradually improving asset quality and low valuation will be factors supporting banking stock prices in 2025. Bank stocks are currently trading with P/B12 months off at 1.51x, 1.8x lower than the historical average and have maintained a stable range from 2023 to present.
For real estate stocks, with a sudden increase in the last quarter of 2024 thanks to the residential real estate group, the factors supporting the recovery of the industry are becoming more solid. Primary supply has increased sharply again, especially in Hanoi and is forecast to remain at a positive level in 2025 in both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. Meanwhile, the absorption rate remains high, driven by real demand and vibrant speculative activities. With improved business prospects, this is one of the industries with potential for price in 2025.
However, the main risk is still the legal dismantling progress, if this process takes place more slowly than expected, the project implementation and handover speed will be affected. Therefore, the increase of residential real estate stocks may be limited, especially in the first half of 2025.
For the infrastructure construction stocks group, FiinGroup forecasts a strong breakthrough in 2025 thanks to the Government's efforts to boost public investment disbursement - considered the main driver for the high GDP growth target (8%).
