The Vietnamese stock market maintained a positive trend with 4 out of 5 sessions of increase last week. Cash flow continues to be bustling to seek opportunities in small and medium-sized stocks, while pillar stocks still play a supporting role, helping the VN-Index approach the historical peak of 1,300 points. However, the hesitant sentiment also appeared quite clearly in the last two sessions of the week when the index approached this resistance level.
In terms of impact, VCB shares were the main pillar to bear the burden for the market yesterday with a contribution of nearly 2 points. In addition, CTG, BCM and MWG also contributed 2 more points, helping the index maintain green in the weekend session. Meanwhile, on the other side, no stock creates too much pressure, with FPT being the stock with the most negative impact but only taking away less than half of the VN-Index.
Foreign investors are continuing to maintain their net selling chain. If this continues, it will have a significant impact on the market in the context that the VN-Index is approaching the important resistance level of 1,300 points. According to statistics on the HOSE floor, foreign investors net sold for 4 sessions and net bought for only 1 session. In total, this group net bought 17.52 million units, while last week it net sold 35.52 million units; the total net selling value reached VND 981.62 billion, down 46.77% compared to last week.
On the HNX floor, foreign investors have net bought for 4 sessions and net sold for 3 sessions. In total, this group net bought 9.18 million units in the week, an increase of nearly 7.5 times compared to the previous week; the total net buying value reached VND 120.22 billion, while last week it net sold VND 30.92 billion.
In the newly released report, analysts from ACBS Securities Company found that the current valuation of the VN-Index decreased to P/E 13.x after the fourth quarter 2024 business results. In which, the P/E of the VN30 group is 12.x. The valuations of key industries (banking, real estate, construction materials, securities, etc.) are still low compared to 2024, while profits remain stable, especially the banking industry - the largest profit pillar of the VN-Index.
ACBS expects business results in the first quarter of 2025 to increase well compared to the same period - contributed by the positive business results of the banking industry (expected to increase by 15% compared to the same period). The real estate groups of industrial parks, construction and infrastructure, seaports, and shipping also have positive profit prospects in 2025.
The analysis team assessed that the market may be affected negatively in the short term but will be an opportunity to accumulate strategic stocks. Therefore, investors should focus on industry groups with positive business results prospects in 2025 and attractive valuations.
In particular, ACBS still aims for the group of real estate enterprises in industrial parks, seaports and shipping to benefit from the trade war. The infrastructure and civil construction group benefits from strong public investment promotion this year from the Government. The group of stocks on the list of market upgrades such as banks and bluechips will also be an attractive opportunity. In addition, investors can consider the electricity industry because it is still in the La Nina hydrological cycle and the renewable energy sector has been legally resolved.
From a technical perspective, the forecast fluctuation zone of the VN-Index in the next month is 1,220 - 1,300 points. However, the analysis team hopes that the forecast of business results in 2025 of many key industry groups and the potential for upgrading this year will be catalysts to support the VN-Index to conquer the 1,300-point mark and can go further to the 1,420 - 1,450-point threshold in 2025. However, in the short term, the market may not break out due to pressure from trade wars.
