The stock market has had a positive trading week as the VN-Index has continuously increased and is expected to conquer the strong resistance level of 1,300 points.
According to trading statistics on the HOSE floor last week, the VN-Index had 4 increasing sessions and 1 decreasing session on February 17.
At the end of the trading week, the VN-Index increased by 20.67 points (+1.62%) to 1,296.75 points. Regarding liquidity, the total trading value last week increased by more than 15% compared to last week, to VND 81,659 billion.
Regarding the index, on the HNX floor, there was also 1 decrease and 4 increases, the total of the whole week the HNX-Index ended the week at 237.57 points, up 5.35 points, equivalent to an increase of 2.31% compared to the previous week.
Regarding liquidity, as well as the HOSE floor, the trading value on the HNX floor increased by 48.2% compared to last week, reaching VND 6,523 billion.
In the context of a differentiated trading general market, the group of bluechip stocks, with the main fulcrum being bank stocks, has helped the VN-Index maintain a good increase. The appeal of banking stocks is kept in the rhythm not only in their role as active market leaders in the first month of the year, but also in the prospects for credit growth in 2025 and a private story in some banks.
The profit growth forecast for the banking group is 15% for 2024 and more than 17% for 2025. In terms of P/B valuation, banking stocks are currently in an attractive area for investment.
Statistics from 27 listed banks show that the general valuation level of banking stocks has not fluctuated much since the beginning of 2023 until now when the price coefficient on book value (P/B) only fluctuated between 1.5 - 1.6 times.
The current P/B is 1.5 times, which is currently priced 1.7 times lower than the 5-year average.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong - Director of Strategic Investment of DG Capital commented that the stock market will be led by stocks with high profit growth and attractive valuations. In leading industries, the banking group will be indispensable.
Dr. Phuong analyzed that with the expectation of strong GDP growth in 2025, credit growth can reach 16 - 18%. The prospect of high credit growth along with promoted public investment disbursement, the profit of the banking industry in 2025 will be more positive than in 2024 and 2023.
The quality of banking assets is also expected to continue to improve. The domestic bad debt ratio is expected to remain stable at 2.2% in early 2025, then gradually decrease.
However, the group of banks with a high restructuring debt ratio will face many challenges if support policies are not extended.
In general, bad debt in the banking industry may have peaked, and will decrease in 2025. Because the effectiveness of bad debt handling is highly appreciated thanks to abundant liquidity and the return of stability of the real estate market.
With the banking industry accounting for a large proportion, about 25 - 30% of total HOSE capitalization, investors expect the positivity of the banking industry to spread to other industry groups.
