The stock market has just experienced two consecutive recovery sessions and regained the important support level of 1,650 points. However, the main minus point is that liquidity is still less vibrant, so experts have identified that the recovery phases are only technical and do not rule out that the market will have a fluctuation phase to accumulate more momentum.
This was shown in today's trading session on March 26, the VN-Index maintained a slight increase in just a short time of opening and then quickly turned around to adjust. Most of the pillar stock groups such as banking, securities, insurance, real estate... all adjusted.
While the buying force participated quite weakly, widespread selling pressure with the main pressure coming from the bluechip stock group, caused VN-Index to maintain a downward trend below the 1,650 point mark.
Closing the trading session on March 26, VN-Index decreased by 13.56 points to the threshold of 1,644.63 points. HoSE's liquidity only reached 21,673 billion.
Foreign investors continued to maintain a net selling trend with a value of about 711 billion VND when buying 2,475 billion VND but selling up to 3,187 billion VND.
In terms of the level of impact on the index, VIC is the most actively contributing stock when helping VN-Index increase by about 2.18 points, followed by GEE (+0.54 points), DCM (+0.38 points), DPM (+0.26 points) and VJC (+0.26 points).
In the opposite direction, VHM put great pressure when taking away about 2.66 points, followed by GAS (-1.11 points), FPT (-0.99 points), TCB (-0.97 points) and VCB (-0.89 points).
The diễn biến of the industry group shows a clear weakening in the financial group. Notably, the oil and gas group recorded a clear differentiation. PVT increased by 3.23%, a rare bright spot, while most other codes adjusted such as PLX (-3.39%), PVD (-0.14%), PVS (-0.47%), BSR (-0.91%).
This opposite development shows that cash flow no longer maintains consensus in the energy group, but switches to a selective state after the previous strong increase.
According to the analysis department of Pinetree Securities Company, at this time it is not possible to confirm that the market has bottomed out in the medium term.
First, the recent decline is not simply due to geopolitical reasons. These risks are inherently time-sensitive and can change very quickly.
Second, investors need to look straight at the nature of the market. Before the strong decline in March took place, VN-Index had already "slightly" entered a correction trend. Many leading pillar stock groups such as banks, securities and Midcap stocks (medium capitalization) have lost their short-term uptrend, breaking important moving average lines.
Experts emphasize that in the coming sessions, the possibility of the market returning to test the 1,614 point zone is entirely possible.
To determine whether VN-Index has truly bottomed out in the medium and long term and entered a sustainable growth cycle, investors need to closely monitor two factors: the return of foreign capital and the resolution of the liquidity problem of the monetary system.
If net selling pressure from foreign investors is eliminated and cash flow starts to net buy stably, along with solving the liquidity problem, the market may enter a more solid recovery phase.
The Vietnamese stock market in the near future will be supported by the story of upgrades. FTSE Russell will announce the review results in early April. Many major organizations believe that the probability of Vietnam passing this "test" is almost 100% and will be officially added to FTSE's indices from September 2026. At that time, billions of USD from foreign funds will pour into the market, creating a new wave of growth.
When investor sentiment stabilizes again, experts predict that cash flow will turn to industry groups with good fundamentals and good inflation resistance, typically Oil and Gas and Chemicals.
Regarding investment strategy in the current context, it is recommended that investors minimize bottom-fishing and bottom-fishing, because the market is in a correction phase with many unpredictable factors.
