VN-Index recorded its third consecutive week of decline since the peak of 1,920 points, equivalent to a decrease of about 163 points (-8.5%). According to experts' assessment, the market adjustment comes from many resonance factors.
The analysis group of MBS Securities Company (CTCK) believes that the first influencing factor is that the global financial market fluctuates strongly when precious metal prices simultaneously plummet, while large-cap technology stocks are being sold off due to concerns about the efficiency of investment in artificial intelligence (AI). This development negatively affects investor sentiment in emerging markets, including Vietnam.
In addition, liquidity pressure in the domestic monetary market increased when overnight interbank interest rates soared to 17.25%/year on February 3, 2026, before cooling down to around 9.5-10%/year.
This phenomenon reflects a temporary liquidity tension, stemming from the credit-deposit growth gap and increased cash demand before Tet, thereby causing a cautious mentality in the stock market.
On the side of foreign investors, they continued to net sell strongly in the context of the USD rebounding and capital withdrawing from Asian markets. Profit-taking pressure also increased in large-cap stocks, especially enterprises with state-owned capital dominating after the previous strong increase period. The fact that VN-Index lost the psychological support level of 1,800 points has activated more proactive selling from a part of investors.
In the current context, commenting on the market, CSI Securities Company believes that the noteworthy point is the sudden sharp decrease in liquidity, showing the cautious sentiment of investors before the long Lunar New Year holiday. At the present time in the short term, new buying positions are quite risky, so priority is given to risk management. The downward trend of VN-Index is still completely dominant, and the possibility of strong fluctuations at the hard support zone around the 1,690 point mark is not excluded.
At this milestone, if it occurs, CSI experts expect the market to quickly rebound. Therefore, it is recommended that investors should limit panicked strong selling when the general market fluctuates deeply, and even need to manage to keep accounts still in purchasing power when VN-Index sinks into the 1,690 point zone.
MBS analysts believe that the above negative factors are temporarily overshadowing some notable long-term positive signals. The economic picture of Vietnam in January 2026 is assessed as very positive. This is an important foundation for the GDP growth target for the whole year at 9-10%, or even higher.
In terms of institutions, Circular 08/2026/TT-BTC is considered the final step in the legal framework, meeting the important technical recommendations of FTSE Russell related to the payment cycle and account opening procedures. This helps improve the accessibility of foreign investors and increase the probability of market upgrades in the near future.
By industry group, cash flow is still maintained positively in industry groups such as Textiles, Logistics, Electricity Production and Distribution, Chemicals (including fertilizers), and Insurance. Meanwhile, the Securities group adjusted but has not formed a new bottom. Conversely, negative signals are concentrated in Residential Real Estate, when many stocks broke the price base and set a new bottom. The Banking group, especially the state-owned banking sector, has made relatively deep discounts and is likely to recover in the short term.
Technically, MBS experts believe that although February usually has a high probability of increase in history, the seasonal factor is being broken when in the first week of the month the market has decreased by more than 4%. Currently, VN-Index has lost the 20-day and 50-day moving average, returning to the accumulation zone that lasts from the end of 2025. The short-term support zone is defined around 1,720-1,725 points, while the medium-term support is at the 1,700 point mark.
