At the end of the first trading week of May, the VN-Index increased by 61.27 points, equivalent to +3.3% to 1,915.37 points, setting a new peak. Liquidity was also vibrant with an average trading value of more than 24,435 billion VND/session.
The VIC and VHM duo continue to be the main driving force for the index, accounting for a total of more than 37 points of increase. Shareholders holding VIC and VHM continue to extend the "dream" days when continuing to witness an increase of nearly 6% and more than 12% respectively last week.
However, for the remaining investors of the market, this development makes the actual performance of investors significantly deviated from the index. In other words, although the market increased sharply in terms of points, not many investors actually benefited commensurately.
However, VN-Index surpassing the historic peak of 1,900 points has helped investor sentiment become more optimistic with expectations for new peaks.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong - Director of Investment Strategy Analysis Department of DG Capital - said that VN-Index's successful surpass of the 1,900 point mark accompanied by superior liquidity is a positive technical signal, showing that the short-term upward trend is likely to be maintained. In that context, the index is expected to continue to move towards the nearest resistance zone around the 1,940 point mark in the next trading sessions.
If VN-Index surpasses this peak, cash flow may have a larger change, especially in the speculative price increase phase. At that time, the market has a basis to move towards higher target areas. However, in the short term, the market may experience fluctuations in the range of 1,900 - 1,920 points," Dr. Phuong assessed.
Analysts from Rong Viet Securities Company (VDSC) said that the market has not yet fully revalued the high profit base of the Q1/2026 financial reporting season. The diễn biến of VN-Index in the past time is still mainly dominated by some individual stocks with support stories, while most stocks have reflected quite deeply the risk of growth decline from the prolonged energy shock and high interest rates.
According to VDSC, this shows that the market is not lacking profit growth, but is lacking confidence in the durability of the profit cycle. The implication is that the risk premium remains at a high level after the Q1 business results season, causing the general valuation level not to expand commensurate with the announced profit base.
Regarding valuation, VDSC adjusted the target P/E band of VN-Index in the next 3-4 months to 12.2-14 times, reflecting the view that interest rates are stabilizing at a "new high level" and are difficult to cool down quickly.
With the expected market EPS increasing from 133 VND to about 136-138 VND, VN-Index is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,623-2,317 points, corresponding to a range from -10.7% to +24.9% compared to the closing level on April 29, 2026", VDSC assessed.
Assessing the spreading capacity of cash flow in the new trading week, experts from MBS Securities Company said that in the new week, cash flow will continue to gradually expand to midcaps, especially groups benefiting from the business results of the first quarter of the year such as public investment, consumer, securities or the story of upgrades, while for smallcaps, an additional condition is needed is that market liquidity must improve and breadth must be less dependent on pillar stocks.
Agreeing with this view, Mr. Tran Thai Binh - CFA, Senior Director of Analysis Division, OCBS Securities Company - also gave his opinion that the possibility of cash flow gradually spreading to midcap and smallcap groups next week is quite high, but it will take place in a selective direction instead of widespread consensus.
However, in terms of psychology, when VN-Index has surpassed the psychological resistance zone of 1,900 points, the general state of investors is clearly improving. Cash flow tends to shift from the bluechip group to stocks with higher beta to seek better profits in the short term. This expert expects the midcap group belonging to the securities, banking, industrial park, and retail sectors to attract stronger cash flow.
