The Vietnamese stock market experienced the first trading week of March full of storms in the context of strong fluctuations in the global financial market amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
However, the explosive liquidity shows that cash flow is not leaving the market but is shifting strongly, prioritizing oil and gas, energy, and fertilizer groups, which are said to benefit from rising commodity prices.
At the end of the trading week, with the inevitable impact of the military conflict in the Middle East, the VN-Index decreased by 112.49 points, equivalent to -5.98% to 1,767.84 points. Liquidity is 50% higher than the 20-week average.
Specifically, accumulated in the week, average order matching liquidity on the HOSE floor reached 1.32 billion units/session, up 39% compared to the previous week, average trading value reached 41,720 billion VND/session, up more than 33%.
Foreign investors are still a negative factor affecting the market when continuing to maintain a strong net selling position of nearly 6,500 billion VND in the first week of March, with the focus of net withdrawal being large-cap FPT.
Regarding the level of impact, VIC's adjustment became the strongest resistance force in the last session of the week when it took away more than 10 points of VN-Index. In addition, strong selling pressure in GAS, GVR, MCH, TCX and VCB also took away a total of nearly 12 points, making the market's weakening momentum even more obvious. Meanwhile, BSR led on the opposite side but also only brought back a meager 1.64 point increase.
During the week, up to 18 out of 21 major industry groups decreased. The increasing groups are Fertilizer increased by more than 11%, Oil and gas increased by more than 8% and Energy slightly increased by nearly 0.5%. Meanwhile, the strongest decrease was in Telecommunications Technology losing nearly 12%, Retailing losing more than 10% and Real Estate losing nearly 9.5%.
Investors believe that geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East are creating an unpredictable context for the economy and stock market. In addition, domestic interest rate risks are also being noted. Interest rates in Vietnam show signs of localized increase in early 2026 and interbank interest rates have at times soared to a high of nearly 20%.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Director of Financial Investment at DG Capital, predicts that this interest rate increase pressure may be localized, occurring around the beginning of 2026 and tending to gradually decrease towards the end of the year.
If the current geopolitical conflict in the Middle East lasts longer than 1 month, oil prices and input materials will increase, leading to increased inflation. When inflation and energy costs increase, domestic interest rates will certainly be pushed up to cope, causing negative impacts on the operational efficiency of businesses and the economy.
When the inflation scenario returns and interest rates rise as in 2022, the stock market will become less attractive," Dr. Phuong assessed.
With the scenario of prolonged war affecting Vietnam, according to a report by VinaCapital, some reputable experts/institutions (Standard Chartered, Goldman Sachs) estimate a probability of 10-20% for a prolonged conflict scenario that could lead to the "complete shutdown" of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz has been "partially closed", mainly due to the sharp increase in risk premiums and related costs.
The scenario of "complete shutdown" with a probability of 10-20% as above - something that has hardly ever happened in history - could force Iran to increase attacks on ships passing through the Strait, thereby pushing oil prices above $100/barrel in the near future.
However, VinaCapital believes that this is a low probability scenario due to the significant level of damage to the Chinese economy (when about half of the volume of oil passing through this Strait is heading towards China).
In that scenario, Vietnamese policymakers will face 3 major challenges. First, inflation may exceed 5%, pushing 12-month deposit interest rates above the 7-8% threshold.
Second, economic growth decreased by about 1 percentage point due to oil prices remaining at a high level.
Third, Vietnam's exports may decline significantly, likely to further reduce GDP growth by about 1 percentage point.
The method for this estimate is to estimate a total impact reduction of about 2 percentage points on Vietnam's GDP growth in the "prolonged war" scenario. In this scenario, VinaCapital assesses that sentiment towards the stock market and real estate will be very negative.
