The Vietnamese stock market has just experienced a rather negative trading week when VN-Index continuously adjusted and "performed" the strong support level of 1,800 points. Notably, market liquidity was very active with the total trading value of the whole market last week reaching VND 160.338 billion, an increase of 9.26% compared to the previous week.
The analysis team of VNDirect Securities Company forecasts that VN-Index is likely to continue to face adjustment pressure in the short term, in the context of increased profit-taking activities and weakening cash flow in trading sessions close to the Lunar New Year holiday.
VN-Index may retreat to test the support zone around 1,766 points (±10 points) to absorb the remaining low-price supply, before gradually recovering and returning to the resistance zone of 1,940 points.
Experts from Rong Viet Securities Company (VDSC) believe that domestic investor sentiment is shifting to a defensive state as the USD/VND exchange rate pressure increases and the market lacks short-term catalysts.
The cash flow structure shows that margin debt still increases but the rate has slowed down quarterly; cash balances at securities companies have decreased sharply, leading to weakening liquidity and lower stock turnover, implying that a part of individual investors have taken profits and withdrawn money from the market.
VDSC believes that increasing capital at large securities companies helps "cool down" leverage and lending limits, but is not enough to reverse liquidity in the context of weakening risk appetite.
The positive point is that the Q4/2025 business results announcement season recorded a clear improvement, with strong profit growth in the real estate and banking groups. For the VN-Index basket, revenue increased by about 28.5%, after-tax profit increased by about 44%, and net profit margin improved to about 12.16%.
The driving force for revenue growth mainly comes from real estate, contributing about 15.1 percentage points, and banks about 5.5 percentage points. In terms of profit, real estate contributes about 24 percentage points, banks about 6 percentage points, while financial services, energy and utilities each contribute about 3 percentage points.
VDSC believes that the past quarter reflected the state of "good business results but differentiated cash flow". The profit base helps support valuation, but reduced liquidity, net selling by foreign investors, policy risks from the US and exchange rate pressure make the market mainly move in a trend of accumulation and differentiation.
On the high growth momentum of 2025, VNDirect forecasts that the net profit of companies listed on HOSE will reach a growth of 18% in 2026 based on a number of supporting factors.
First, GDP growth is expected to continue to accelerate.
Second, the profit prospects of many industry groups are positive thanks to the expansion of selective fiscal policy, promoting the private economy, improved FDI and consumption recovery.
Third, the controlled loose monetary policy and reduced exchange rate pressure along with the roadmap to gradually remove the credit growth ceiling from 2026 as directed by the Prime Minister will continue to create a favorable environment for business operations of enterprises.
With the forecast that listed companies on HSX will achieve 18% profit growth in 2026, this will bring the projected P/E ratio for 2026 of VN-Index to maintain around 13 times, thereby keeping the valuation of the Vietnamese stock market at a fairly attractive level.
According to VNDirect Research's assessment, key system upgrades and reforms expected to be implemented in 2026, along with Fitch raising Vietnam's long-term secured debt instrument credit rating to BBB-, will contribute to strengthening investor confidence, improving creditworthiness, reducing capital costs and promoting foreign capital inflows into the Vietnamese stock market in the medium and long term.
These factors will encourage stronger participation of new investors, especially institutional and professional investors.
