After 4 consecutive weeks of declining points with depleted liquidity, the stock market had a pretty good recovery week even though at one point it had lost the important support level of 1,600 points.
Although foreign investors continue to maintain the net selling trend, market sentiment this week has been more stable as the VN-Index has had 4 consecutive recovery sessions and closed the week firmly holding the 20-week MA20 line around 1,635 points.
Regarding liquidity, trading volume gradually recovered while the value moved sideways and decreased slightly by the end of the week, active selling pressure also tended to dominate, showing that the momentum for the VN-Index to soon escape the downtrend was low.
The liquidity ratio of the VN30 group contributing to the market last week also decreased slightly and was replaced by the VNMid group, showing a shift in cash flow in the market from the large-cap group to the mid-cap group.
According to investors, the market is still in the technical recovery stage and needs another explosive session to confirm whether the VN-Index can enter a new uptrend or not. If a positive scenario occurs, the group of stocks with a chance to lead will be Mid-cap, where the current supply pressure is not too great, instead of the pillar groups above.
Current signals suggest that the market may need more time to rebalance supply and demand before establishing a new trend. If no new disadvantages appear, the index may decrease in the short term, with the 1,600-point area now becoming the main resistance.
According to analysts at Agriseco Securities Company, the positive scenario is that the VN-Index may fluctuate around the reference area in the first session of the week, even increasing points early to approach the resistance of 1,650 points, opening up an opportunity for the VN-Index to escape the downtrend.
In the context of the short-term trend of still decreasing points with liquidity remaining low, investors should limit the use of margin to preserve purchasing power. However, many stocks with good fundamentals have discounted to more attractive valuation zones and can accumulate for the medium and long term. Currently, the P/E valuation of the VN-Index is 14.26 times, an average of the average of the past 3 years. In particular, many industry groups and stocks have entered the valuation zone quite attractively.
Analysts at Pinetree Securities Company recommend that investors wait until the bottom-clearing session. After finding a balance last week, the positive signal is that liquidity remains low - showing that supply is no longer overwhelming, while bottom-fishing buying has had short-term profits, especially in the banking and securities groups when there are no stocks with old bottom holes.
In the immediate future, according to Pinetree experts, early next week, VN-Index may re-evaluate the support zone around 1,600 points, if this zone is maintained and then an explosive session appears on the rise, the uptrend will be confirmed. But if the 1,600 zone is lost, the market could retreat to deeper support zones around 1,500 - 1,550 points.
