After losing the 1,900 point mark, the stock market continued to struggle and adjust around the peak area last week. Selling pressure in the Vingroup stock group no longer increased as strongly as in the previous period, while bottom-fishing demand reappeared, contributing to supporting the index.
However, the weakening spread to large-cap groups such as banks and securities, causing VN-Index to continue to be under adjustment pressure, repeatedly testing the support zone of 1,850 points. At the end of the week, the index decreased by 13.7 points (0.7%) to 1,863.49 points.
Liquidity continued to decline with the average trading value on HOSE being only about VND 16,500 billion/session, the lowest in many months, reflecting a cautious sentiment as the market has not had new momentum.
Looking at the index, VN-Index is still in a high point area compared to history. At the end of May 2026, VN-Index reached 1,863.49 points, stock capitalization on HOSE reached 8.782 million billion VND. The average trading value on HOSE in May reached more than 24,300 billion VND/day. However, the problem lies in the quality and trend of liquidity.
In early June, cash flow showed clear signs of slowing down. In the first sessions of June, the trading value on HOSE only reached more than 15,000 billion VND, the lowest in many months. A more noteworthy point is that liquidity is differentiating.
Cash flow did not withdraw completely from the market, but no longer spread widely and only focused on some stocks with their own story, mid-cap and small-cap stocks, or some groups benefiting from policies and business results. Meanwhile, the large-cap stock group, although still playing the role of pulling the index, has not created widespread consensus for the market to enter a sustainable upward trend.
According to experts' assessment, this is a state of "thin liquidity in confidence". It is not that investors lack money, but that they are not ready to pay a higher price for risks. When deposit interest rates become more attractive, foreign investors net sell for a long time and the entire market margin has reached a high level, domestic cash flow will prioritize defense instead of chasing.
A noteworthy figure is that the outstanding margin balance of the whole market at the end of Q1/2026 is estimated at about 405,000 billion VND, a record high. High margin is not necessarily negative if it goes along with a strong upward trend and abundant liquidity. But when liquidity weakens, high margin becomes a factor that makes the market more volatile: just one deep drop or unfavorable information, pressure to reduce proportion can spread quickly from weak stock groups to the whole market.
In addition, foreign investors continue to be a psychological resistance force. In May, foreign investors net sold nearly 19,000 billion VND on HOSE. The withdrawal of foreign capital not only affected supply and demand but also affected the risk valuation psychology of domestic investors.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, said that to remove the liquidity bottleneck, the stock market needs a combination of many factors. In which, the interest rate factor will play the most important role. If the State Bank of Vietnam maintains stable system liquidity, the exchange rate does not create great pressure and lending interest rates can actually decrease, it is expected that business profits will improve. Then, cash flow will have reason to return to basic stock groups instead of just rotating in the short term.
For the story of foreign capital flows, the story of market upgrades is a noteworthy medium-term catalyst. However, upgrades are only a necessary condition. The sufficient condition is still goods quality, information transparency, capital absorption capacity and the belief that business profits will go hand in hand with economic growth.
