In the past week, the VN-Index recorded its second consecutive week of recovery when increasing by 47.38 points (+2.06%). Although the index went up, the market breadth in each session reflected a strong tug-of-war and differentiation.
The main support comes from the Vingroup stock group and the support of a few banking and securities stock groups. Therefore, there have been many forecasts that if this group adjusts without other industry groups as counterweights, VN-Index may be under strong downward pressure.
The diễn biến of the trading session on June 29 was also not outside this trend. VN-Index traded throughout the time in red and at times lost more than 20 points. The decrease range narrowed in the last minutes, but not much.
At the close of the trading session, VN-Index decreased by 16.94 points (-0.9%) to 1,854.97 points. Liquidity on HOSE today reached nearly 17,400 billion VND, of which a large-cap basket accounted for more than 10,000 billion VND.
No stock market reached a thousand-billion matched order value. The pair VHM and VIC led with 915 billion VND and 793 billion VND respectively. Foreign investors today disbursed less than 1,500 billion VND, while selling more than 2,200 billion VND.
The index plummeted sharply, but the number of gaining stocks prevailed on both the HOSE and the large-cap basket. Today there were nearly 190 codes closing above the reference price, while about 130 codes decreased. The number of gainers and losers in the VN30 basket is 21 and 9 codes respectively.
In which, Vin stocks were the main factor causing this group to lose points. At the end of the session, VIC decreased by 4.7%, VHM decreased by 3.7% and VRE decreased by 2.7%, totaling more than 22 points of the general index.
In the opposite direction, the banking group has become an important pillar helping the index avoid a deeper decline. The positive developments of the banking stock group show the return of anticipation after supporting information from the State Bank of Vietnam's official approval of the draft Circular 25/2026/TT-NHNN with the main highlight coming from increasing the maximum ratio of short-term capital used for medium and long-term lending (SMLR) from 30% to 40%, effective from July 1, 2026.
Observing market developments shows that the past two weeks of recovery is not enough to confirm that the market has entered a sustainable upward trend. The key is that the score is "better" in substance. VN-Index is moving towards 1,900 points mainly thanks to the pulling force from a few large-cap stocks, while the rest of the market is still quite gloomy.
The "green shell, red heart" situation that has lasted for the past two weeks - the index is increasing but the number of declining stocks overwhelms the number of increasing stocks - is clear evidence of this extreme differentiation.
Low liquidity is a more worrying signal. Cash flow has not returned convincingly, showing that investors are still standing aside to observe, not ready to participate again on a large scale. A technical recovery without confirmed liquidity often lacks sustainability.
In the coming sessions, the 1,900 point zone will be a real test. If the index surpasses with improved liquidity and market breadth expanding, recovery expectations will be strengthened. Conversely, if it continues to be "green shell red core" with weak liquidity, the market is likely to soon return to a correction state.
