At the end of the first trading week of February, VN-Index decreased by more than 73 points, equivalent to a decrease of 4.02% compared to the previous week. However, the value of order matching transactions on HOSE increased by about 8% and exceeded the 20-week average.
It can be seen that the stock market is under great pressure as the state-owned capital stock group begins to weaken, while the deep decline of the Vingroup group continues to pull the index down.
Currently, cash flow in the market is tending to narrow and focus on some stocks with clear growth stories and attractive valuation levels. Instead of spreading widely, the possibility of forming an upward trend in the short term is not really clear.
Usually, in pre-Tet trading weeks, seasonal factors often cause personal cash flow to withdraw part of it for spending or reducing margin pressure. In addition, an important factor is the prevailing psychology of safety and defense when investors find it difficult to predict macroeconomic and international fluctuations during the long holiday.
In the current context, many expert opinions predict that the negative trend will likely continue until the beginning of the week before Tet.
Agriseco Securities Company (CTCK) believes that VN-Index is likely to move in a dominant sideways accumulation trend, with a narrow fluctuation range around the 1,730-1,780 point area. However, the index retreating to strong support zones of 1,730-1,750 points may trigger short-term bottom-fishing demand.
Recovery phases, if any, are assessed as more technical, due to the factor of long holidays and year-end portfolio restructuring activities continuing to dominate investor sentiment. Therefore, the appropriate strategy in this period is to maintain a reasonable proportion of stocks (50-60% of portfolio), limit chasing purchases in early market recovery sessions, instead prioritizing increasing the proportion of stocks at market fluctuations to important support levels (1,730 points).
OCBS Securities Company put forward the view that the market has just experienced a fairly strong correction phase, so the possibility will lean towards a sideways accumulation scenario or a slight increase rather than a strong recovery phase. In the current period, if there are no too negative macroeconomic news, sellers will not decisively sell out at all costs, creating a stable price base.
VNDirect forecasts that VN-Index is likely to continue to be under adjustment pressure in the short term as profit-taking activities increase and cash flow shows signs of weakening in the sessions near the Tet holiday. Accordingly, the index may retreat to test the support zone around 1,766 points (fluctuating 10 points) to absorb the remaining low-price supply, before gradually recovering and returning to the resistance zone of 1,940 points after the Lunar New Year.
Regarding the investment strategy in the current period, in the trading week before the Lunar New Year holiday, market liquidity will tend to be more quiet, VN-Index and stocks may enter a sideways phase to consolidate the price base.
Therefore, in the short term, investors should limit the use of margin, instead they can take advantage of market corrections to disburse with industry groups, stocks with internal strength and real profit growth prospects such as Banking, Construction & Materials, Retail, Oil and Gas.
After the Lunar New Year holiday, large cash flow may enter and activate a new price increase phase more strongly and clearly. That will be the next buying time if investors want to increase the stock ratio.
