After each Lunar New Year holiday, the Vietnamese stock market is often affected by many specific factors such as investor psychology, liquidity and domestic and international economic developments.
Long holidays can disrupt the flow of information, making market sentiment more susceptible to factors such as interest rate movements, oil prices and global stock indexes. Investors tend to be more cautious as they closely monitor the factors that influence them to make appropriate decisions.
Market liquidity also often declines during this period as many individual and institutional investors need time to return to the market and evaluate new trends. Low liquidity increases the possibility of price volatility, especially for highly speculative stocks.
2025 is the year when the stock market faces a major challenge: the pressure to mature corporate bonds. This is the peak year for the maturity of bonds issued in the 2020-2021 period, especially concentrated in the real estate group.
Although some businesses have proactively restructured their debt and bought back bonds before maturity, many companies still face liquidity risks. This situation can put great pressure on real estate stocks and negatively affect market sentiment.
However, the market after Tet also recorded many positive signals.
The VN-Index closed the last trading session before the Tet holiday (January 25, 2025) at 1,265 points, showing that investors still expect an upturn in the new year. A notable signal is that foreign capital is returning strongly. Large investment funds are expected to continue to disburse thanks to the improved legal framework from the amended Securities Law, which will take effect from the beginning of 2025. These changes are expected to increase transparency and protect investors, thereby strengthening foreign investors' confidence and creating momentum for the market.
In addition, the Vietnamese economy continues to maintain a strong recovery momentum, with stable GDP growth, increasing FDI inflows and improved export activities thanks to free trade agreements. Export sectors such as textiles, seafood and electronics are expected to continue to be bright spots supporting the market. Optimism in the new year and strong purchasing power during Tet are opportunities for consumer, retail and service stocks to become the center of attention.
According to Mr. Dao Hong Duong, Director of Industry and Stock Analysis at VPBank Securities (VPBankS), in the past 5 years, there were 3 years when the market increased after Tet, of which 2 years increased strongly by over 4%.
He said that after Tet, investor sentiment is often more positive, along with the announcement of business results of listed enterprises and the beginning of the shareholder meeting season, creating momentum for market liquidity.
Regarding potential stock groups, Mr. Dao Hong Duong predicts that the VN-Index after Tet will be led by stocks with high profit growth and attractive valuations, such as banks, basic resources, food and beverage, retail, personal and household goods, and chemicals. In particular, the banking sector is expected to lead the market with projected profit growth of about 15% for 2024 and more than 17% for 2025.
