In the trading session on November 25, although VN-Index recovered and increased by more than 6 points, market liquidity continued to decrease and confirmed the second lowest session in November.
Total trading volume reached more than 497.8 million units, worth VND 11,953.77 billion.
Experts still highly appreciate the 1,200-point support zone with the support of 3 factors: Good valuation foundation, not too risky domestic macro context, and positive inter-market situation.
Although market liquidity is low, the reaction when it touched 1,200 in the session on November 20 shows that cash flow is ready to join the bottom fishing game, just not confident enough to buy.
Notably, after ending a month of huge net selling in the last session of the week, foreign investors continued to increase disbursement, net buying more than 115 billion VND in the session of November 25, more than 4 times the previous session.
Although it is impossible to confirm that the net selling momentum of foreign investors is entirely due to exchange rate reasons, it is undeniable that the strongest net selling periods of foreign investors in 2024 completely coincided with the sharp increases in exchange rates. Therefore, the first impact that can be mentioned is cash flow.
The impact on investor sentiment and expectations about the macro backdrop is another factor, as many fear interest rate hikes to stabilize the currency market.
Even US stocks and gold, which have been strong this year, have seen their gains held back; gold has also seen sharp declines at times.
Therefore, Vietnamese stocks - weaker cash flow and lack of support from strong financial - banking - securities and real estate stocks; when USDX increases sharply, it will have a greater impact because domestic cash flow is already weak when liquidity has decreased in recent months along with foreign investors continuously net selling.
The question investors are asking now is, are there any other drivers that can trigger cash flow in the future?
According to many analysts, the factor affecting the stock market in the coming time will still mainly be the growth rate of enterprises, low valuations will be the factor stimulating bottom-fishing cash flow to return to the market.
At the same time, solid macro strength is also the foundation to help the market avoid sharp sell-offs. In addition, long-term growth factors in 2025 are also a supporting factor for the market in the coming time, along with many medium and long-term stories such as market upgrades.
There will not be much room for strong selling by foreign investors - which is also a factor that reduces the cautiousness of domestic investors.
