The stock market had an impressive increase on the derivatives expiry date of November 21, contrary to investors' concerns.
Although there was a positive increase, the downside was that liquidity weakened and focused heavily on bluechips, making the recovery less convincing. In particular, more than half of the total trading value of the HOSE was concentrated in the VN30 group, making the short-term recovery questionable when it was largely dominated by bluechips.
Foreign investors have not shown any signs of improvement as they continued to net sell nearly 1,000 billion VND in the session of November 21, of which VHM shares alone were net sold nearly 600 billion VND.
Divergence has continued across sectors recently. Banking, securities, and steel groups have continuously lost points, putting pressure on the overall market’s recovery. However, green is still maintained in some groups, especially seaports - shipping, telecommunications, technology, textiles, and construction materials.
The current market is relatively difficult to forecast when major macroeconomic policies have not been issued. Therefore, during this period, cash flow in the market is also relatively weak and has not created a strong driving force in the market. Although the business results in the third quarter of 2024 of listed enterprises are quite good, they still need more support from cash flow.
Experts from KBSV Securities Company assessed that VN-Index continued to maintain its recovery momentum in the derivatives expiration session and closed at its highest level. The actions of buyers in the last two sessions are showing that the bottom-fishing mentality is quite active, a positive point that can help the market situation become more balanced.
However, the large movement amplitude during the derivatives expiry period can cause disturbance to the market, especially when the increase is largely supported by pillar stocks. In addition, the high supply pressure is still quite large, which will cause the risk of an early reversal for the index at resistance zones, when the short-term downtrend is dominant, KBSV commented.
Analysts from Yuanta Securities Company also believe that the market will likely continue to increase in the coming sessions and the VN-Index may retest the resistance zone of 1,238-1,240 points.
At the same time, Yuanta still assesses that this is just a technical recovery and cannot completely confirm the short-term bottom. Currently, bullish reversal patterns are forming but cannot confirm these patterns. The positive point is that liquidity has improved compared to the last 3 sessions, but a few more sessions need to be observed to assess the liquidity trend.
The general view of analysts is that the market will continue to recover in the coming time, investors can consider opening new purchases with reasonable proportions. However, fluctuations in the international market, DXY index and domestic USD/VND exchange rate still need to be closely monitored to continue assessing the risk level of the market.
During this period, investors still need to be cautious with the price increase during the session, limit chasing and take advantage of opportunities to handle stocks that have broken the base or trend. However, it is possible to continue to buy some stocks with positive business results prospects when the VN-Index retreats to lower support zones.
Besides, it is also important to note that the market is likely to decline to form a second bottom. Therefore, investors should maintain a moderate proportion, especially in the context that the VN-Index has been trading in the 1,200-1,300 point range for more than half a year.
