About 2.28 billion USD of passive capital is expected to be disbursed in 4 phases
Upgrading the stock market is one of the events that investors are particularly interested in in September 2026. However, besides capital flows that may appear immediately in restructuring phases, a longer-term issue is the possibility of Vietnam increasing its weight in emerging market indices.
According to SSI Research, Vietnam's weight in the FTSE Emerging All Cap Index has increased from about 0.34-0.35% in March to about 0.49-0.50% in August 2026.
The first deployment marks the official transformation of Vietnamese stocks into the emerging market index basket. After that, subsequent evaluations will show the possibility of market reform and the emergence of new stocks that may continue to expand Vietnam's investment scale.
According to the roadmap, the disbursement process is expected to be carried out in 4 phases. Phase 1 in September 2026 with a disbursement rate of 10%; phase 2 in March 2027 with 20%; phase 3 in June 2027 and phase 4 in September 2027, each phase 35%.
In the base scenario, SSI Research assumes that Vietnam's weight in the FTSE Emerging All Cap Index will remain around 0.49% in all 4 phases.
With the total net assets of related ETF funds reaching approximately 1.46 million USD as of August 31, 2026, the capital flow into Vietnam in the first phase is estimated at about 228 million USD. Phase 2 may attract an additional 456 million USD, while phase 3 and phase 4 are both at around 799 million USD.
Overall, the amount of passive capital that could flow into the Vietnamese stock market reached approximately 2.282 billion USD.
Among the funds statistically analyzed by SSI Research, Vanguard Total International Stock ETF has the largest expected capital flow, about 861 million USD in the entire process. Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF ranks next with about 822 million USD.
Capital flow focuses on large-cap stocks
Capital flow from the upgrade process is expected to focus significantly on large-cap stocks.
According to calculations by SSI Research, with the basic scenario, the total passive capital flow allocated to 27 stocks throughout the process reached about 2,282.26 million USD.
VIC leads with an expected capital flow of about 829.67 million USD, equivalent to about 36% of the total estimated capital flow. In the first phase alone, this stock could attract about 82.97 million USD.
Second place is VHM with about 239.58 million USD in the entire process, of which the first phase is expected to reach 23.96 million USD.
HPG ranked next with 124.66 million USD, VPB 91.88 million USD and FPT 84.38 million USD. MSN, VCB, SSI, STB and VNM stocks are also in the group expected to attract a significant amount of capital.
Considering the first phase alone, the total expected capital flow into 27 stocks reached 228.23 million USD. In addition to VIC, VHM and HPG, VPB may attract about 9.19 million USD, FPT 8.44 million USD, MCH 7.73 million USD, MSN 7.10 million USD and VCB 6.97 million USD.
However, the impact of cash flow on each stock depends not only on the value of allocated capital but also on liquidity. According to SSI Research estimates, MCH needs about 3.93 trading days to absorb the capital of the first phase and about 35.38 trading days for the remaining capital of the subsequent phases. VCK also has a relatively high estimated number of trading days, 2.26 days and 20.35 days respectively.
The proportion can increase to 0.95% if the investment scale is expanded
Besides the basic scenario, SSI Research also offers a positive scenario, in which Vietnam's proportion in the FTSE Emerging All Cap Index continues to expand after upgrading.
According to this scenario, Vietnam's weight will reach 0.50% in phase 1, 0.65% in phase 2, 0.80% in phase 3 and 0.95% in phase 4 of September 2027, respectively.
If this scenario occurs, the scale of passive capital flows into the Vietnamese stock market will be significantly larger than the case where the proportion is maintained around 0.49%.
SSI Research believes that to expand the market size in the index sets, Vietnam needs to have a larger free-float ratio, more foreign ownership space, the emergence of new large-cap listed companies, and at the same time continue to improve payment and enforcement activities, corporate governance and information disclosure.
The domestic institutional investor base also needs to be expanded. Domestic economic growth is not enough to increase Vietnam's proportion in international indices if that value is not reflected through listed securities with sufficient scale, high liquidity and easy access for international investors.
