The stock market had positive trading sessions in early September. However, the durability of the upward momentum depends greatly on the Vingroup ecosystem, because VIC has increased by 24.9% in just 19 sessions and if VIC is excluded, the VN-Index has clearly weakened since mid-2025.
Meanwhile, liquidity in recent sessions has been quite low, with the average trading value in the first 2 sessions of September only reaching more than 17,000 billion VND, much lower than the figure of 20,000 billion VND.
Therefore, when selling pressure increased, VIC stock turned to adjust and the VN-Index reversed sharply in the trading session on September 7. At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index decreased by 31.44 points (-1.7%), to 1,821.64 points.
HoSE had 235 declining codes, nearly 3 times the number of increasing codes, which is 84 codes. Market liquidity only reached a trading volume of more than 643.8 million units, worth 17,153 billion VND. Block transactions contributed more than 147 million units, worth 3,553 billion VND.
The biggest impact on the market was that VIC shares fell deeper, closing down 4.3% to the lowest price in the session of 250,000 VND/share, taking approximately 17.5 points of the general index.
Other deeply declining bluechip codes such as TCB decreased by 2.1%, CTG and VNM both decreased by 1.9%, VPB decreased by 1.8%, MBB, BSR and TCX both decreased by 1.7%...
Regarding industry groups, with VIC's sharp decline, the real estate group continues to fall deeper and still leads the market's decline when losing more than 3%.
It can be seen that the goal of conquering 1,900 points is still facing many obstacles because this is an important psychological milestone for the market.The recent strong increase of the market is assessed by experts as having a significantly lower quality compared to previous times the market approached the 1,900 point zone.
Liquidity in the area below 1,900 points is currently significantly lower than the periods when VN-Index once reached this area, showing that the cash flow participating is not really strong. Meanwhile, the market breadth is very low when Vingroup group and some leading stocks take turns pulling the index, while most stocks go sideways or adjust.
This development creates a "green shell, red core" state when the index still increases but the internal strength is not commensurate. Therefore, there is not much basis to be too optimistic when VN-Index is in the high point zone.
In the international context, monetary policy risks have not been eased as the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates in 2026 is still ahead, even the scenario of raising interest rates right in September cannot be ruled out.
With such an environment, VN-Index surpassing 1,900 points sustainably while the quality of cash flow has not improved will be a difficult problem, and investors need to prepare for the possibility of strong fluctuations next week.
Regarding the story of FTSE Russell officially upgrading Vietnam from September 21, experts believe that this is still positive information and an important catalyst in the long term. However, the expectation of upgrading has been significantly reflected in the market, making the room to create a major boost in the short term not much.
The nature of the upgrade story is a long-term process when capital is allocated in several phases within 12 months. Even when the index funds are fully disbursed, the scale of purchases is not necessarily large enough to compare with the very large net selling volume of foreign investors in the past 2-3 years, in 2026 alone, it has exceeded 3.5 billion USD.
Therefore, upgrades can create a positive psychological effect and support the market in the long term, but should not be considered a key factor determining trends in the short and medium term.
Betting too much on the possibility of "upgrade waves" helps VN-Index surpass the old peak in just a few weeks, which is not a highly appreciated strategy. However, if cash flow continues to focus on pulling back pillar stocks, the index may still be pushed up to higher levels.
