The stock market in January 2025 was relatively negative but improved in the last sessions before the Lunar New Year holiday. Technically, the VN-Index continued to maintain green in the last trading session of the Lunar New Year with gradually improving liquidity. The matched volume exceeded the 20-session average, showing that the upward trend is gradually taking over.
The next trading week after the long holiday will be an important time for investors to monitor the market development. Investor sentiment is still mainly cautiously waiting for policy decisions after President Donald Trump takes office.
US stocks fell on Friday (January 31), after the White House said that US President Donald Trump will implement a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods effective Saturday (February 1).
Investors are most worried about two policies: tariffs and immigration policies, which could cause inflation to rise again, and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may not cut interest rates or cut them slightly. This makes liquidity relatively low, so although many investors have seen new opportunities, they need to wait longer. If cash flow continues to increase and is strongly supported by foreign investors, the market is likely to have strong breakthroughs, especially when stock indexes are at positive levels.
According to the assessment of analysts at Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company, the market valuation (P/E) is around 12.9 times.
The market is currently quite similar to the period from 2015 to 2016. Before entering the boom period of 2016 - 2018, the market still had to go through a period of sideways movement throughout 2015 and the lowest P/E at that time also fluctuated within 12 times.
Therefore, at this stage, the stock market is attractive enough to offset the risks from exchange rates and short-term risks, helping investors gradually find opportunities for themselves. In particular, investors should note that in a year, the first quarter is usually the best growth quarter of the year.
Forecasting the market trading trend in the week right after the Lunar New Year holiday, experts from Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company said that the market may continue to increase in the first session of the week and the VN-Index may soon test the resistance level of 1,280 points in the next few sessions. At the same time, the market may experience corrections due to the impact of the US's trade tensions with other countries, but the corrections may end quickly because the US is only imposing partial tariffs and this has been predicted in advance.
Sharing the same view, Saigon - Hanoi Securities Company also believes that the short-term trend of VN-Index is quite positive again, market sentiment has improved well when VN-Index maintains the support zone and surpasses the important resistance zone around 1,255 points. Opening up the prospect of returning to the price range of 1,280-1,300, the upper limit of the medium-term accumulation channel of 1,200-1,300 that has lasted throughout the past year. VN-Index opens up the prospect of returning to the short-term growth trend.
Mirae Asset Securities Company forecasts that the market will surpass 1,260 points, helping the VN-Index break the sideways channel and form an upward trend again. If it returns after a 5-session holiday without facing great negative pressure from the world market, we expect the VN-Index to head towards 1,280 points in the short term. The short-term technical score is at +5 points. The P/E ratio of the VN-Index is at 14.8x.
