Overcoming very big shocks from outside
The summary report on the results of implementing the socio-economic development plan for 2025, the period 2021-2025 and the expected socio-economic development plan for 2026 presented by Politburo Member, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh at the 10th session of the 15th National Assembly not only attracted attention with the GDP growth rate of over 8% but also in the assessment of the capacity and resilience of the Vietnamese economy.
Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh affirmed that Vietnam's economy in 2025 and the period 2021-2025 is strong enough to withstand external shocks, maintaining a growth rate among the top in the world. Impressive figures include the average GDP in the period 2021-2025 reaching an increase of 6.3%, higher than the previous term (6.2%) despite the COVID-19 pandemic causing growth in 2021 to reach only 2.55%.
Speaking about the resilience of the Vietnamese economy, the Prime Minister said that our country is still a developing country, with a transitioning economy, the scale of the economy is still modest, the openness is high, and the resilience to external shocks is still limited. However, in the past 5 years, our economy has still been strong enough to withstand and overcome very large external shocks.
Thanks to that, we have stabilized the macroeconomy, controlled inflation, promoted growth, and ensured major balances (sufficient revenue and expenditure; sufficient import and export; enough to eat; enough energy for production, business and consumption; the labor market meets the transformation; budget deficit is lower than assigned by the National Assembly and lower than in previous terms; public debt, foreign debt, and government debt have all decreased compared to before). People's lives have been improved, and the People's Happiness Index has increased by 39 places compared to the beginning of the term. National defense and security potential has been strengthened.
The more pressure our nation is, the more we strive and develop.
Further analyzing the direction and tasks of 2026, the Prime Minister said that the growth target of 8% in 2025 and the two figures from 2026 are difficult tasks as many analyzes. But we have a scientific and practical basis to implement this goal, promoting the strength of our nation.
The more pressure our nation is, the more we strive and develop; the difficulty reveals the wisdom; turning the impossible into the possible, turning the difficulty into the easy, turning the impossible into the possible. In fact, this has been proven," the Prime Minister affirmed.
From the perspective of UNDP, Ms. Ramla Khalidi - Resident Representative of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in Vietnam said that Vietnam has made significant progress, despite the global challenges facing it. “I believe that Vietnam has been able to turn some crises and challenges into opportunities for itself” - Ms. Ramla Khalidi said.
The UNDP Resident Representative in Vietnam cited a prominent area in the achievements, which is economic growth - reaching more than 7% in this period, and another achievement that UNDP especially recognizes is the High Human Development Index (HDI) which is continuing to improve. These are some highlights of Vietnam's achievements.
According to UNDP's point of view, the most impressive thing lies in strong leadership and strategic vision, helping Vietnam effectively implement economic development policies. For example, Vietnam has been able to overcome many challenges, from pandemics to risks related to crises and adapting to climate crisis - a major issue facing the country - to rise up with resilience and strength.
Assessing the resilience to external shocks of the Vietnamese economy, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu - National Assembly Deputy, Member of the National Assembly's Economic and Budget Committee - said that Vietnam has enough strength because the internal capacity of the economy has improved very strongly in the period 2021-2025 compared to the previous period.
Data can show this, such as the average GDP growth rate in the period 2021-2025 is higher than the previous period, although this is a very difficult and challenging period. The economic scale also increased from 364 billion USD to about 510 billion USD. Total import and export turnover and trade surplus also improved significantly compared to previous periods.
Harmonious adjustment before external shocks
Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu cited the story of Vietnam overcoming the COVID-19 shock, ensuring resources to support people and businesses, implementing vaccine diplomacy to ensure health safety for people and immediately after that implementing a series of economic recovery and development programs to overcome difficulties. The next shock is the trend of bringing investment back. Many people are concerned about how Vietnam will attract foreign investment and whether it will be affected. But data shows that foreign investment attraction in the past 5 years has been progressing and growing, Vietnam is still considered one of the foreign investment destinations, which is of interest to many investors.
The most recent shock is the trade tariff policy of President Trump's administration (USA). Many people are worried, but we have reacted very quickly, drastically and promptly. To date, according to statistics, Vietnam's trade with the US in 9 months still reached 112 billion USD. Compared economically, there is still growth. This reflects the ability to respond to shocks" - Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu.
However, the Member of the National Assembly's Economic and Budget Committee also pointed out that, despite the improvement in financial and management capacity, in the face of shocks, the Vietnamese economy is still limited. That is the limitation of resources, affecting the balance of development investment policies, social security and fiscal policy. This is a very big difficulty. The second difficulty is the issue of institutions and this explains why Vietnam is determined to promote institutional reform so much.
There are also many difficulties from outside that we cannot control, such as COVID-19. Other difficulties are tariff policies, import and export or investment of countries.
There are many difficulties, but basically we have all had solutions when facing shocks and difficulties. What is commendable and happy is that basically we have overcome the difficulties up to this point" - Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu gave his assessment.
