The Vietnamese stock market entered the first trading week of August with the recovery momentum continuing to expand. However, after the previous series of increases and when VN-Index approached the MA200 zone along with the psychological resistance level of 1,800 points, the upward momentum gradually slowed down and the shaking state appeared more clearly towards the end of the week.
Foreign investors also sent positive signals when returning to net buying more than 2,250 billion VND on HoSE in the week, significantly focusing on the Vingroup group. However, a noteworthy point is that liquidity has not kept up with the index's increase. Trading volume decreased by 10.3% compared to the previous week and is about 9% lower than the 20-week average.
Cash flow still tends to be selective, focusing on leading stocks and businesses with good business results, instead of spreading widely. The positive point is that the stock level has not weakened significantly, as many codes still maintain their base prices.
The prospects of the stock market in August continue to be supported by the semi-annual business results, FTSE Russell's expected market upgrade in September and the semi-annual review results of the FTSE Global Equity Index Series announced on August 21. In addition, the direction of accelerating equitization and state capital divestment may create more expectations for the group of state-owned stocks.
However, for VN-Index to sustainably exceed 1,800 points, the improvement of liquidity and the spread of cash flow will be a key condition.
Phu Hung Securities Company (CTCK) believes that next week is likely to continue to be a period of fluctuation and differentiation, instead of forming a consensual upward momentum. After a series of rapid recovery, VN-Index entering the resistance zone of 1,750-1,780 makes supply more dominant, especially when liquidity in the buying direction has not shown a corresponding improvement. Notably, the difference of about 20 points between derivative contracts and VN30 base also shows that cash flow expectations for the ability to overcome resistance in the large-cap group are cautious.
PHS Securities Company believes that if VN-Index continues to balance well, the recovery momentum may accumulate more momentum and aim to break through the 1,800 point mark. Conversely, if cash flow weakens, liquidity increases in declining sessions and many stocks return to break bottom, caution is needed with the possibility of the recovery momentum reversing. Support is close to maintaining the current movement structure around the 1,730 point zone.
OCBS Securities Company believes that in the context of VN-Index testing the 1,780-1,800 point zone, investors should prioritize observing cash flow developments rather than rushing to increase the proportion. Only disburse when stocks adjust to a reasonable price range and the general upward trend of the market is confirmed.
For the existing portfolio, investors should maintain stocks with good fundamentals, positive business results and supported by cash flow. For stocks that have increased sharply, investors can consider taking partial profits, while resolutely reducing the proportion in weak stocks.
Regarding industry groups, banking and securities are expected to continue to play a leading role when VN-Index tests the 1,800 point mark. Real estate, public investment, infrastructure and large-cap stocks are also noteworthy when cash flow spreads. Investors should prioritize businesses with solid foundations, reasonable valuations and clear growth prospects, avoiding over-distribution.
In general, the recovery trend of the market is gradually being consolidated but still needs further confirmation from cash flow. Zone 1. 780-1.800 points will be an important test to confirm the VN-Index's ability to conquer higher levels.
