Lao Dong Newspaper had an interview with Mr. Tran Thanh Hai - Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department - Ministry of Industry and Trade about response scenarios and recommendations for businesses facing the risk of a trade war.
How does the Ministry of Industry and Trade forecast Vietnam's economic situation in the context of current global trade tensions? If a trade war breaks out, how will international trade activities be affected, sir?
- With an estimated increase of 3% in 2025, we can still determine that exports are a driving force for Vietnam's economic growth in 2025. Currently, signs of trade conflict have appeared with the US imposing a 10% tax on imported goods from China. In the context that these are the two largest economies in the world, China is the largest exporter and has the highest trade surplus with the US, the above tax imposition will have many impacts not only on the two countries but also on many other economies.
The products that China is exporting to the US include electrical equipment, electronics, machinery, household appliances, automobiles, textiles, footwear, agricultural products, etc., so the supply chains related to these products will be affected to some extent, as shown by the local scarcity of raw materials and possible price fluctuations. On the other hand, if Chinese goods are reduced in exports to the US, it will create pressure to push them to other markets, including Vietnam.
What solutions and response scenarios does the Ministry of Industry and Trade propose to promote and maintain export markets in the face of US tax policies and the risk of a trade war?
- Export is one of the three very important traditional driving forces of our country's economy. To maintain the export market in the face of US tax policies and the risk of trade war, and at the same time achieve the target of increasing GDP by 8-10%, the growth of goods exports must reach 12% or more.
To achieve the above goals requires high determination, great efforts, drastic and effective actions of all levels, sectors, localities, industry associations and enterprises. In particular, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will focus on effectively implementing solutions to promote competitive advantages and take advantage of export market opportunities.
Firstly, expand export markets by promoting and supporting businesses and industry associations to effectively exploit traditional markets with great potential. At the same time, proactively research, advise on negotiations, and sign cooperation agreements with new markets; focus on exploiting and making the most of opportunities from key and strategic markets.
Second, take advantage of opportunities from free trade agreements of which Vietnam is a member. Continue to innovate and improve the effectiveness of activities to support businesses and industry associations to fully implement commitments in signed free trade agreements and ways to take advantage of tariff incentives, meeting regulations on goods origin.
Third, proactively grasp the situation and advise on timely policy responses by continuing to promote and enhance the role of Vietnamese trade offices abroad in grasping information, promptly reflecting fluctuations in the world economy and new policies of host countries, helping State agencies have timely and effective policy responses.
Fourth, promote trade promotion with focus and key points. Diversify forms of trade promotion, link trade promotion activities with production and export development of domestic enterprises and with e-commerce development and digital transformation.
Fifth, actively support businesses in participating in international trade. Strengthen early warning of risks and accompany businesses when trade defense lawsuits arise. Support businesses in overcoming new trade barriers in import markets. Enhance the capacity of small and medium enterprises in branding, marketing, and international trade promotion skills.
What recommendations does the Ministry of Industry and Trade have for businesses to prepare to respond to and overcome challenges, sir?
- Proactivity is a prerequisite to help businesses respond to and overcome challenges. Businesses need to closely follow the market fluctuations and political and social factors affecting the market to have appropriate responses. Businesses need to have systematic investment, aiming for long-term goals. In particular, investing in people, improving the capacity of management and business staff is a key factor. Quickly grasping, mastering and successfully applying technology, especially new achievements such as artificial intelligence, in management, customer search, and market expansion will help businesses significantly improve their competitiveness, creating a difference in the market.
Thank you!
