This afternoon, October 4, Mr. Nguyen Van Huong - Head of Weather Forecast Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting provided the latest comments on storm No. 11 Matmo. Notably, the information on the storm's trajectory tends to deviate north and there are adjustments in the forecast of rainfall in some areas.
Mr. Nguyen Van Huong, what is the forecast for the next developments of storm No. 11 Matmo; please tell us where the storm will make landfall?
- Currently, the strongest wind near the center of storm No. 11 is level 11. 12. It is forecasted that in the next 24 hours, the storm will continue to move west-northwest and will reach its maximum intensity of level 13.
Our calculation on the path of the storm shows that in the coming time, the storm will tend to shift north, the storm will enter the area between Quang Ninh (Vietnam) and Guangxi province (China). The strongest storm intensity is about level 8 - 9 in Quang Ninh, other areas have strong winds of level 6 - level 7.
Why do storms tend to strengthen rapidly after entering the East Sea, sir?
- When entering the East Sea, the storm tends to strengthen due to relatively favorable sea surface temperatures of about 28 - 29 degrees Celsius. While the normal temperature of 26 - 27 degrees Celsius is already a good condition for the storm to strengthen.
In addition, the dynamic conditions for wind shear in the northern part of the East Sea - where the center of Matmo moves in) are small, favorable for the development of the storm.
Subtropical high pressure, the shape that determines the speed of movement in the direction of storm Matmo, strongly encroaches to the west, causing storm Matmo to strengthen and move quickly.
In the next 24 hours, the storm will tend to strengthen. However, when it passes the north of the Lusian Peninsula (China) and enters the Gulf of Tonkin, the storm will rub against the ground and the wind shear in this area will increase, so the storm intensity tends to decrease gradually. Quang Ninh is likely to have strong winds of level 8 - 9 and this is also likely to be the strongest wind when the storm affects the mainland.
When the storm's path tends to shift north, which areas are forecast to be affected by heavy rain, sir?
- Due to the influence of the circulation of storm No. 11 Matmo, from the night of October 5 to October 7, the Northern region will experience a period of widespread heavy rain.
With the calculation of the storm moving north, the main focus of the rain will be in the midlands and mountainous areas of the North. The common rainfall from the night of October 5 to October 7 is about 150 - 250mm, in some places over 400mm.
Because the storm moves north, the rain in the Northern Delta and Thanh Hoa will not be as large, commonly at 70 - 120mm, in some places over 200mm.
In previous storms, the time of impact is usually before the storm makes landfall. What recommendations do you have for the people?
- From the night of October 5, on the mainland in the coastal area from Quang Ninh to Hung Yen, the wind will gradually increase to level 6 - 7, near the storm center level 8 - 9, gusting to level 10 - 11. The deep inland area of the Northeast will have strong winds of level 4 - 5, some places will have level 6, gusting to level 7 - 8.
The rain and storm winds are dangerous but thunderstorms are ahead, while the storm's impact is very worrying. The circulation of storm No. 11 is wide, so it is possible that when the storm has not yet entered and caused direct impact, thunderstorms may still appear in the front of the storm, focusing on the Gulf of Tonkin, the Northern region.
Sincerely thank you!
