According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, at 4:00 a.m. on October 4, the center of storm No. 11 Matmo was at about 17.9 degrees north latitude; 117.4 degrees east longitude, in the eastern sea of the northern East Sea, about 570 km east-northeast of the Hoang Sa special zone. The strongest wind near the storm center is level 11, gusting to level 14. The storm is moving west-northwest at a speed of about 25 km/h.
Storm No. 11 reaches maximum gust level 16 in the next 24 hours
According to Mr. Hoang Phuc Lam - Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, in the next 24 hours, the storm is forecast to move west-northwest at a speed of 20-25 km/h and is likely to strengthen.
At 4:00 a.m. on October 5, the center of the storm was at about 19.7 degrees north latitude; 112.2 degrees east longitude, in the northern East Sea, about 130 km east of Zhou Peninsula (China). Strong winds of level 13, gusting to level 16 - this could be the maximum intensity of the storm.
The danger zone in the next 24 hours is from latitude 16 to 21.5 degrees north, longitude 110 to 119 degrees east. Natural disaster risk level 3 for the northern East Sea area.
It is forecasted that in the next 48 hours, the storm will move west-northwest, at a speed of about 20 km/h and gradually weaken. At 4:00 a.m. on October 6, the center of the storm was at about 21.6 degrees north latitude; 108.1 degrees east longitude, in the northeastern coastal area of Quang Ninh province. Strong wind level 10, gust level 13.
The dangerous area in the next 48 hours will be north of the 18-point north latitude, east of the 114-point east longitude. The natural disaster risk level is level 3 for the northern East Sea, the northern sea area of the Gulf of Tonkin and the mainland from Quang Ninh to Ninh Binh.
Mr. Hoang Phuc Lam said that the scenario is very likely, corresponding to the trend of the subtropical high pressure tongue weakening rapidly and retreating to the east, storm No. 11 will move more north, moving more on land quite similar to the path of storm No. 9.
"When it reaches the northern area of Quang Ninh province, the storm will weaken by 2-4 degrees compared to the time of strongest storm" - Mr. Lam said.
Scenario 2 forecasts the landfall point to still be Quang Ninh, but the intensity of the storm when entering the mainland will be stronger than scenario 1.
It is forecasted that in the next 60 hours, the storm will continue to move west-northwest at a speed of 15-20 km/h, entering the mainland northeast of the Northern region and gradually weakening into a tropical depression, then a low pressure area.
At 4:00 p.m. on October 6, the center was at about 22.5 degrees north latitude; 106.1 degrees east longitude, in the mountainous areas of the northern part of the province. Wind intensity below level 6.
Storm No. 11 hits Quang Ninh, strongly affecting from the North to Nghe An
Regarding the impact of the storm at sea, according to Mr. Lam, the northern East Sea area has strong winds of level 8-10, the area near the storm's eye has strong winds of level 11-13, gusts of level 16, waves 4-6 m high, the area near the storm's eye has 6-8 m, the sea is very rough. Excessive destructive power, extremely strong waves, and the ability to sink heavy ships.
From the afternoon of October 5, the sea area east of the northern part of the Gulf of Tonkin (including Bach Long Vi special zone) will gradually increase to level 6-7, then increase to level 8-9. From the evening of October 5, the northern area of the Gulf of Tonkin (including the special areas of Bach Long Vi, Van Don, Co To, Cat Hai and Hon Dau island) will gradually increase to level 8-9, waves 2-4 m high, the area near the storm's eye will have strong winds of level 10-11, gusts of level 14, waves 3-5 m high, the sea will be very rough (very dangerous for ships).
Warning of storm surge, coastal areas and islands in Quang Ninh - Hai Phong province have storm surge water from 0.4-0.6 m high. It is necessary to be on guard against flooding in low-lying areas, coastal areas, river mouths due to rising water and big waves from the afternoon and evening of October 5.
The meteorological agency warns that the weather at sea and in coastal mainland areas during the storm is extremely dangerous, unsafe for any vehicles or works operating in the dangerous area such as: tourist boats, passenger ships, transport ships, cages, aquaculture areas, dykes, coastal roads. Vehicles are likely to overturn or be destroyed; flooding may occur due to strong winds, large waves and rising sea levels.
The Deputy Director of the meteorological agency warned that on land from the night of October 5, on land in the area from Quang Ninh to Ninh Binh, the wind will gradually increase to level 6-8, the area near the storm center will have strong winds of level 9-10. The wind can knock down trees, houses, and electric poles, causing serious damage. The deep inland area northeast of the Ministry has strong winds of level 6, some places have level 7, gusting to level 8-9.
Regarding heavy rain, from the night of October 5 to the end of the night of October 7, in the northern region, Thanh Hoa and Nghe An, there will be heavy to very heavy rain with common rainfall of 100-200 mm, locally over 300 mm; in the mountainous and midland areas of the north, it will be common from 150-250 mm, some places over 400 mm. Warning of the risk of rain with a high intensity of over 200 mm/3 hours.
"The rainfall from Typhoon No. 11 could be slightly lower than Typhoon No. 10. However, in the context of very heavy and prolonged rain in the same area of the North, concentrated in the mountainous and midland areas, the warning of the risk of flash floods, landslides, and flash floods in the coming days is very high" - Mr. Lam emphasized.
With such rainfall, the meteorological agency warned that from October 6 to 9, in the North, Thanh Hoa, Nghe An, there will be 1 flood, the flood peak on the rivers will be from above alert level 2 to above alert level 3.
