This afternoon, October 18, Mr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Department of Hydro-Meteorology provided the latest comments on the storm Fengshen and the scenarios of the storm's impact on Vietnam's mainland weather.
Sir, when is the forecast for Typhoon Fengshen to enter the East Sea and become the 12th storm of the year?
- Early in the morning of October 18, the tropical depression in the sea east of the Philippines strengthened into a storm, the 24th storm in the Northwest Pacific region and was internationally named Fengshen. The name of this storm is given by China, Fengshen in Chinese means The Wind God.
At 7:00 a.m. this morning, the center of Typhoon Fengshen was at about 13.1 degrees north latitude; 126.5 degrees east longitude, in the sea east of the central Philippines. Strong storm intensity level 8 (62 - 74km/h), gust level 10.
It is forecasted that around tomorrow morning (October 19), Typhoon Fengshen will make landfall in the Luzon Island area (Philippines). Tomorrow afternoon and evening, Typhoon Fengshen will pass through Luzon Island (Philippines) and enter the East Sea, becoming Typhoon No. 12.
What is the forecast for the storm's development scenario, the maximum intensity is around level 7, sir?
- It is forecasted that after moving into the East Sea, storm No. 12 will move mainly in the west-northwest direction with the intensity of continuing to strengthen. At around October 22, when the storm moves to the northern area of Hoang Sa special zone, the intensity of storm No. 12 will increase to level 11, gusting to level 13.
However, the characteristics of this storm No. 12 are that when the storm moves into the East Sea, the East Sea is being affected by cold air. The cold air mass blocking the western part of the storm makes it unlikely to move westward to enter the North or up to China (due to being blocked in the north and blocked in the west).
Therefore, when moving into the Hoang Sa special area, it will reach its strongest intensity of level 11, gusting to level 13, storm No. 12 will be affected by cold air and gradually weaken. It is likely to weaken into a tropical depression before affecting the mainland of the Central provinces.
If it weakens before making landfall, will Typhoon Fengshen have dangerous impacts, sir?
- Although the possibility of maintaining the intensity of the storm to affect the Central region is not high, however, with the impact of the storm circulation combined with cold air in the northern and central East Sea (including the special area of Hoang Sa), the Gulf of Tonkin as well as the sea area from Quang Tri - Quang Ngai in the coming days, there will often be strong winds from level 6 - 8 or higher, waves 3 - 4m high, and rough seas.
Due to the impact of the post-storm circulation No. 12 combined with the impact of cold air from October 23 to 26, the area from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai will experience a period of moderate to heavy rain over a wide area.
The interaction of cold air and storms is one of the types of interaction with many scenarios. If the storm comes first, the cold air comes later or the storm and the cold air will cause a lot of rain, but in the case of the cold air coming first, then the new storm comes, the rain is not too heavy.
Currently, the scenarios of rain as well as the impact of storms on the mainland of Vietnam still depend heavily on the development of the cold air. Therefore, it is necessary to closely monitor the simultaneous developments of the storm's path and the impact of cold air.
Sincerely thank you!
