The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has issued a nationwide seasonal hydro-metropoleum forecast bulletin (ie from April to September 2025).
Notably, ENSO has switched to neutral. ENSO's activities are especially valuable in forecasting storm trends.
The reporter had an interview with Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam - Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting - about the forecasts for this year's rainy and stormy season.
Sir, how is the forecast for ENSO's development in the next 6 months?
- Currently, the ENSO phenomenon is in neutral conditions, with the standard deviation of sea surface temperature in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean at approximately the same level as the average of many years in the first week of March 2025.
From April to June 2025, ENSO is likely to maintain a neutral state with a probability of 70 - 80%.
From July to September 2025, the ENSO phenomenon is likely to continue to remain neutral.
With ENSO activities like this, what is the forecast for the storm season trend in the first months of the season, sir?
- The storm season is likely to appear similar to the average of many years - that is, around June.
Regarding storm trends, from April to September 2025, storms/tropical depressions will operate in the East Sea and directly affect the mainland, equivalent to the average of many years.
According to the average data of many years from April to June, there will be 1.8 storms/tropical depressions in the East Sea, with 0.3 of them making landfall.
The average data for many years from July to September in the East Sea is 6.4 storms/tropical depressions, with 2.9 making landfall.
In addition to information on storm trends, people are also interested in forecasting rainfall in the coming time. Can you give us the latest forecast for the upcoming rains?
- In April 2025, there is a possibility of seasonal changes in the Northern, North Central, Central Highlands and Southern regions. People need to be on guard against moderate and heavy rains in the above areas in May - June 2025.
During the period from July to September, it is necessary to be on guard against moderate to heavy rains across the country. Pay special attention to the possibility of dangerous weather phenomena such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning and strong gusts of wind.
Sincerely thank you!
The FARMATICAL ENSO
According to the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change
El Nino: El Nino is a concept used to refer to the phenomenon of unusual warming of the surface water layer in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean lasting for 3 seasons or more, El Nino is also known as the "hot period".
La Nina: In contrast to El Nino, La Nina is a concept used to refer to the phenomenon of abnormal cold air in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean lasting for 3 seasons or more, also known as "cold storm".
Neutral state: When the sea surface temperature is between a "hot" and a "cold" state, it is called a neutral state.
