The first cold air waves in Vietnam usually begin to appear around the end of September or early October, with weak intensity, causing the temperature to not change significantly. Cold air increases intensity and frequency significantly in the 3 main winter months including December, January and February. This time is often associated with prolonged cold spells, severe cold, and widespread frost.
However, this winter's dien bien is relatively different, the temperature is at a high level. According to Mr. Nguyen Duc Hoa - Deputy Head of the Climate Forecasting Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, compared to the average of many years and cold years, this winter cold air is weak.
Statistics from the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting show that in the early winter months (October, November, December), the temperature in the North is 1 - 2 degrees Celsius higher than the multi-year average. Even in December, the temperature in some places is about 2.5 degrees Celsius higher than the annual average.
Regarding the cause of this situation, Mr. Nguyen Duc Hoa assessed that this year is in the phasing phase of ENSO, so the weather dien bien has become unusual.
Especially in winter, cold air is weak, and cold air spells are mostly short-term. Therefore, the average monthly temperature is still high, with sunny days rising sharply, and only chilly at night, not deep cold.
Besides, cold air from the north overflowing into our country tends to deviate to the East Sea, so the temperature inland is high. Another reason why this winter is warmer than the average of many years is that the sea surface temperature in the East Sea area is still at a warm level" - Mr. Hoa said.
At the same time, according to the Deputy Head of the Climate Forecasting Department, the strong current in the upper-level westerly wind zone - the conduit of cold air - is also operating weaker than the average level, so cold air cannot spill deep into our country in the first months of the recent winter.
On January 6, 2026, the North will welcome the first widespread cold spell in winter - later than the average of many years. Then, from January 6 to now, the weather continues to turn to dry cold, dry sunny days, large temperature differences day and night, only cold at night and in the morning. Forecast information on the cold air dien bien in the remaining time of winter is awaited by people.
According to Mr. Hoa, it is forecast that in January and February - still in the main winter months, cold air will continue to operate weaker than the average of many years, the temperature will remain approximately average.
However, it is still necessary to be wary of strong cold air waves that may cause the lowest temperature to drop deeply in the northern mountainous provinces during this period, accompanied by the risk of frost and frost" - Mr. Hoa said.
Mr. Hoa added that it is forecast that from the second half of February to March, the North will have light rain, drizzle, and humidity with an intensity equivalent to every year.
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