The Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, Environment and Marine Science has released a 3-month climate forecast (from now until October 2026) based on climate diễn biến analysis, the Institute's statistical model, and forecast bulletins from major climate centers around the world.
El Nino is getting stronger faster
According to Dr. Truong Ba Kien, Deputy Director of the Center for Meteorology and Climate Research, Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, Environment and Marine Science, currently, atmospheric and ocean conditions are in El Nino state.
The forecast of El Nino is likely to continue until early spring 2027 (95% probability). According to the US Climate Prediction Center, El Nino tends to increase in intensity, reaching strong to very strong intensity in the 3rd season of August - October 2026 with a probability of about 90% and maintaining at a very strong level in the 3rd season of October - December 2026 with a probability of about 81%" - Mr. Kien added.
Under the impact of El Nino, the dry season 2026 - 2027 in the Central Highlands and Southern regions is likely to experience severe widespread drought.
The climate researcher also said that the intensity of the summer monsoon is likely to be close to or stronger than the multi-year average in August, then gradually weaken with intensity close to or lower than the multi-year average at the end of the season. The end of the summer monsoon is likely earlier than or closer to the multi-year average.
Regarding the temperature trend, from August to October 2026, the temperature is likely to be higher than the multi-year average in most areas of the country.
In August - September 2026, hot weather will continue to appear in the North and Central regions, with hot weather levels likely to be more intense than the multi-year average" - Mr. Kien assessed.
Fewer storms but still potential risk of strong storms
Total rainfall in the next 3 months is likely to be approximately the multi-year average in the North; approximately or lower than the multi-year average in the area from Thanh Hoa to Hue city, the Central Highlands and the South; lower than the multi-year average in the South Central Coast.
Regarding the tropical cyclone trend, according to the Deputy Director of the Center for Meteorology and Climate Research, the number of storms/tropical depressions operating in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam from August to October is likely lower than the multi-year average. On average, in the above period, there are about 6 storms in the East Sea and 3-4 storms affecting Vietnam.
From August to October 2026, there will be about 4-5 storms/tropical depressions; of which about 2-3 will affect Vietnam" - Mr. Kien added.
Dr. Truong Ba Kien especially emphasized that in typical El Nino years, the number of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea may decrease, but there is a potential risk of stronger storms and more complex trajectories. Therefore, even if the number decreases, the risks related to this year's storm season are still very high.
Note that seasonal weather forecasting information is trend forecasting in nature. The meteorological agency especially emphasizes that in the context of climate change, weather, and climate are becoming increasingly complex.
Therefore, it is proposed to regularly update and integrate forecast information and hydrometeorological warnings in 1-3 day short-term bulletins, to promptly adjust production plans and appropriate response plans.
