The Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, Environment and Marine Science has issued a 3-month climate forecast (from March to May 2026) based on climate diễn biến analysis, the Institute's statistical model, and forecast bulletins from major climate centers around the world.
Accordingly, it is predicted that in the next 3 months, ENSO tends to gradually shift to a neutral state, with a probability of about 90%.
According to Dr. Truong Ba Kien - Deputy Director of the Center for Meteorology and Climate Research - Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, Environment and Marine Science, the forecast for the start of the summer monsoon and activity intensity is equivalent to the multi-year average.
Regarding the temperature trend, from March to May 2026, the temperature is likely to be approximately or higher than the multi-year average in the North and the area from Thanh Hoa to Hue city; approximately the multi-year average in the South Central Coast, Central Highlands and Southern regions.
From March 2026, widespread hot weather is likely to begin to appear in the Southeast region. Hot weather will begin to appear in the Central Highlands and Southwest regions from March to April 2026; in the Northwest region in April 2026" - Mr. Kien said.
Dr. Truong Ba Kien added that drought in the Central Highlands and Southern regions continues to occur in the period from March to April 2026. There is a possibility of some localized rains, reducing drought conditions in the region.
In the next 3 months, total rainfall is likely to be approximately the average of many years in the same period in most areas of the country.
The rainy season in the Central Highlands and Southern regions is likely to start at a level close to the multi-year average, which is around the end of April, early May" - Mr. Kien said.
The Deputy Director of the Center for Meteorology and Climate Research also provided information forecasting the storm season trend in 2026. Accordingly, from March to May 2026, there is little chance of tropical cyclones appearing in the East Sea area.
The 2026 storm season is likely to start at a level close to the multi-year average.
The number of tropical cyclones operating in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam in 2026 is likely to be equivalent to the multi-year average (the multi-year average is about 12-13 storms in the East Sea, of which 6-7 storms affect Vietnam)" - Mr. Kien said.
