The Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change has issued a climate forecast for the 3-month period (from March to May 2025) based on climate change analysis, the Institute's statistical model, and forecast bulletins from major climate centers around the world.
Regarding the ENSO phenomenon, ENSO is in weak La Nina conditions. ENSO is forecast to likely switch to a neutral state in the spring, with a probability of about 60 - 65%.
The temperature trend in the 3 months from March to May 2025 is likely to be approximately the same as the average of many years in the same period in most of the country.
In the next 3 months, the number of cold air waves affecting Vietnam is approximately the same as the average of many years. According to the average data of many years in the period from March to May, there are about 7 - 8 periods.
The summer monsoon in the South and Central Highlands is likely to start earlier than the average of many years. The intensity of the summer monsoon is approximately the average of many years.
Hot weather is likely to appear late in the Central Highlands and the South. The hot weather in the Northwest is likely to appear in April. The intensity of hot weather is less severe than in 2024.
Regarding rainfall, from March to May, total rainfall is likely to be approximately the average of many years in the North and North Central regions; approximately to higher than the average of many years in the South Central regions, Central Highlands, and South.
The rainy season in the South and Central Highlands may come earlier than the average of many years.
The dry season in 2025 in the Central Highlands and the South is not serious, and there is only a possibility of local water shortage. Unseasonal rains during the pre-rainy season (March - April) are likely to appear, reducing drought conditions in the area.
Some concepts of ENSO according to the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change:
El Nino: El Nino is a concept used to refer to the phenomenon of abnormal warming of the surface water layer in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino is also known as the "hot spot".
La Nina: In contrast to El Nino, La Nina is a concept used to refer to the abnormal cold phenomenon of the surface water layer in the eastern equatorial sea of the Pacific Ocean. La Nina is also known as the "cold flood".
Southern fluctuations (SO): SO is a concept used to refer to the fluctuation phenomenon of the pressure difference between the western and central equatorial Pacific.
ENSO: Because the two phenomena El Nino/La Nina (ocreatic) and SO ( atmospheric) occurring on the equator TBD are closely related, they are linked together into a dual phenomenon, abbreviated as ENSO.
