The Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, Environment and Marine Science has released a 3-month climate forecast (from February to April 2026) based on climate diễn biến analysis, the Institute's statistical model, and forecast bulletins from major climate centers around the world.
Accordingly, currently, atmospheric and ocean conditions show that ENSO is in La Nina state. IT is forecast that ENSO is likely to gradually shift to neutral state in the period February - April 2026, with a probability of over 85%.
From February to April 2026, the temperature is likely to be close to or higher than the multi-year average in the North, close to the multi-year average in the Central and Southern regions.
The intensity of the winter monsoon is likely to be approximately the multi-year average. Severe cold spells mainly occur in the first half of February 2026, especially in the northern mountainous areas, frost and ice may appear. After that, the frequency and intensity of cold air tend to gradually weaken.
Hot weather is likely to start at a level close to the multi-year average.
Regarding the rainfall trend, in the next 3 months, total rainfall is likely to be lower than or close to the multi-year average in the North, close to the multi-year average in the Central region and close to or higher than the multi-year average in the South.
In the first months of 2026, the drought situation in the Central Highlands and Southern regions is less serious. The possibility of unseasonal rains is reducing drought conditions in the region.
Regarding the activity of tropical cyclones, from February - April 2026, storms and tropical depressions are unlikely to appear in the East Sea.
