The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has forecast seasonal weather trends (from February - July 2026).
According to Mr. Nguyen Duc Hoa - Deputy Head of the Climate Forecasting Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, currently, the ENSO phenomenon is in a weak La Nina state with the sea surface temperature deviation standard in the central Pacific region (NINO3.4 region) in the first week of January 2026 at -0.5 degrees C.
Forecast, in the next three months, the ENSO phenomenon is likely to transition to a neutral state with a probability of about 75 - 85%, while the probability in the La Nina state decreases compared to previous forecasts and is only in the range of 15 - 25%" - Mr. Hoa said.
Mr. Hoa added that it is predicted that from May to July, ENSO is likely to maintain a neutral state with a probability range of 55 - 65%. The probability of transitioning to El Nino state tends to gradually increase and ranges from 35 - 45%. The probability of transitioning to La Nina state is very low.
The Deputy Head of the Climate Forecasting Department also said that from February to April, it is less likely to appear in the East Sea area. From May to July, the activity of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea and landfall in our country is equivalent to the multi-year average.
According to multi-year average data from February to April, there were 0.5 storms/tropical depressions in the East Sea, none of which made landfall. In the period from May to July, there were an average of about 3.3 storms/tropical depressions in the East Sea, making landfall of 1.2 storms.
Previously, in 2025, there were 21 storms/tropical depressions operating in the East Sea (including 15 storms and 6 tropical depressions). Last year also became the year with the most storms/tropical depressions operating in the East Sea since observation data (since 1961). The year with the most tropical cyclones before that was 2017 with 20 storms/tropical depressions.
Regarding the rain trend, from February to April 2026, total rainfall across the country is generally at a level close to the multi-year average.
In the dry season months at the beginning of 2026, unseasonal rain is likely to appear in the Central Highlands and Southern regions" - Mr. Hoa said.
The Northern region in February 2026, the total rainfall is commonly from 15 - 35mm; in March 2026, the total rainfall is commonly from 40 - 80mm; in April 2026, the total rainfall is commonly from 60 - 120mm, especially the Northwest region has places higher.
The Central region in February 2026, the total rainfall is commonly from 20 - 40mm; especially the area from Quang Tri to Da Nang City and eastern Quang Ngai is commonly from 50 - 100mm. The Central Highlands region has a common total rainfall of 10 - 20mm, especially the south is from 30 - 50mm, in some places higher from 5 - 20mm.
In March 2026, total rainfall is commonly from 30 - 70mm; in the southern region of the South Central Coast and Central Highlands, it is commonly from 70 - 120mm, in some places higher than 150mm, higher than the multi-year average from 20-60mm.
In April 2026, the total rainfall is commonly from 40-90mm, in some places over 100mm.
The Southern region in February 2026, total rainfall is commonly from 10 - 30mm, higher than the multi-year average by 5 - 10mm, in some places higher.
In March 2026, the total rainfall is commonly from 30-60mm, 10-20mm higher than the multi-year average.
In April 2026, the total rainfall is commonly from 70 - 150mm, higher than the multi-year average by 5 - 15mm.
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