The Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, Environment and Marine Science has issued a 3-month climate forecast (from January to March 2026) based on climate dien bien analysis, the Institute's statistical model, and forecast bulletins from major climate centers around the world.
Reporters exchanged with Dr. Truong Ba Kien, Deputy Director of the Center for Climate and Weather Research - Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, Environment and Marine Science about the most noteworthy weather features in the above period.
Sir, what will the ENSO large-scale climate phenomenon be in the first 3 months of 2026?
- Currently, the atmosphere and ocean conditions reflecting ENSO are in La Nina state. It is predicted that ENSO is likely to gradually transition to a neutral state in the period January - March 2026, with a probability of about 65 - 70%, but the possibility is still leaning towards the cold phase.
Therefore, the weather in the first months of our country will still be affected by the cold phase. In the next 3 months, it is not the storm season, so it is predicted that storms and tropical depressions are less likely to appear in the East Sea. This is also consistent with the climate law.
How is the activity of cold air forecast in the next 3 months, sir?
- From January to March, the temperature forecast is likely to be close to the multi-year average in most areas of the country. The intensity of the northeast monsoon is likely to be close to the multi-year average.
In the main winter months - January - February 2026, beware of severe cold spells. Especially in the northern mountainous areas, frost and freezing may appear during the above period.
In the first months of the year, what is the forecast for rain dien bien across the country, sir?
- In the first 3 months of the year, the total rainfall is likely to be approximately the multi-year average in the North, the area from Thanh Hoa to Hue city, and the South Central Coast. In the Central Highlands and the South, the total rainfall is approximately to higher than the multi-year average due to the activity in the south of the low ditch being quite strong.
Because of unseasonal rain, the drought situation in the Central Highlands and Southern regions in the first months of the year is forecast to be less serious.
Thank you very much, sir!
Some concepts of ENSO according to the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change:
El Nino: El Nino is a concept used to refer to the abnormal heating of the surface water layer in the east equatorial Pacific sea. El Nino is also called the "heat level".
La Nina: Contrary to El Nino, La Nina is a concept used to refer to the abnormal cooling of the surface water of the east equatorial Pacific sea. La Nina is also known as the "cooling".
South Oscillation (SO): SO is the concept used to refer to the phenomenon of oscillation of the pressure difference between the west and the center of the Pacific Equator.
Because the 2 phenomena El Nino/La Nina (Ocean) and SO (atmospheric) occurring on the TBD equator are closely related to each other, they are linked together into a dual phenomenon, abbreviated as ENSO.
