In 2025, many types of natural disasters broke records, especially the activity of storms and large floods. 2026 also faces challenges for disaster prevention and control. The transformation of climate patterns may put the weather system into an unstable state. Mr. Nguyen Van Huong - Head of Weather Forecasting Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting analyzed the climate trend in the coming time.
According to Mr. Huong, currently, ENSO is in a weak La Nina state. However, forecast models show that in the next three months, ENSO is highly likely (80 - 90%) to gradually shift to a neutral state; the probability of maintaining La Nina decreases to 10 - 20%.
From June to August, ENSO is likely to maintain a neutral state but gradually lean towards the hot phase, with the probability of transitioning to El Nino increasing to about 35 - 45%.
From the beginning of autumn 2026, the hot tilt neutral state will be clearer and is likely to shift to El Nino in the last months of 2026, early 2027. This phase transition is expected to increase the uncertainty of extreme weather phenomena globally as well as regionally" - Mr. Huong analyzed.
Regarding the diễn biến of rain and storms in 2026, according to the Head of the Weather Forecast Department, the activity of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea from March to July is likely to be equivalent to the multi-year average.
From August to December, the number of storms/tropical depressions may be lower than the average (the average for many years in the East Sea is about 9.6 storms, of which about 3.8 storms directly affect our mainland).
However, in conditions of high sea surface temperature and hot ENSO tilting, it is necessary to especially be wary of storms with strong intensity, rapid development, complex trajectory and high risk levels" - Mr. Huong recommended.
Mr. Huong added that from September to December, storms tend to have more impact on the Central region and the Southern region, but it is not ruled out that storms will still affect the Northern region in September to October in the context that ENSO has a general trend towards the hot phase in the second half of the year.
One of the most worrying points of 2026 is the appearance of unusually heavy rains. Mr. Huong noted that when ENSO changes phases, not only the temperature increases, but also phenomena of thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning, hail and localized heavy rain tend to appear more and stronger than normal.
Especially during transitional periods such as March to May and September to October, these dangerous weather patterns will be strong.
Mr. Huong commented: "2026 will be a year of weather and natural disasters with more extreme and unpredictable nature.
Therefore, closely monitoring short-term forecast bulletins is extremely necessary for localities and people to proactively plan responses and minimize damage to unusual weather changes.
