2025 is considered one of the years with extreme weather and natural disaster developments, with a series of records broken. Stepping into 2026 in the context of ongoing climate change, reporters had an interview with Mr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Department of Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting about the climate trends this year.
Mr. Mai Van Khiem, how do you assess the natural disaster and weather situation in 2025?
- 2025 recorded 21 storms and tropical depressions (15 storms, 6 tropical depressions) operating in the East Sea, becoming the year with the largest number of storms and tropical depressions ever recorded, higher than the previous record in 2017 with 20 storms.
Not only setting a record in quantity, the 2025 storm season also has many very unusual and extreme characteristics. Storm No. 9 Ragasa reached a strong intensity of level 17, gusting above level 17, becoming the strongest storm ever recorded in the East Sea region.
Besides storms, in 2025, serious flooding occurred on a large scale. The peak flood water level on many rivers has exceeded historical milestones in the North, Central, Central Highlands and Mekong Delta.
Particularly serious is the historic flood in eastern Dak Lak province, which is assessed to have overcome the historical flood peak of 1993 in the Ba River basin.
How will the meteorological agency forecast the weather and climate trends in 2026, sir?
- Assessments up to now show that in 2026, the atmosphere - ocean system will undergo many phase transition states. The weak La Nina cold phase is expected to be maintained in the first months of 2026; by mid-year, the weather may be affected by the neutral ENSO state and by the end of the year, the possibility of being affected by the El Nino hot phase.
With the continuous phase transition nature of such a large-scale ENSO phenomenon, the atmosphere - ocean conditions will be in an unstable state. This may be the cause of extreme weather and climate phenomena such as strong storms, heavy rainfall... appearing in 2026.
However, because La Nina at the beginning of the year is weak and El Nino at the end of the year is unlikely to be too strong, extreme weather phenomena that occur daily will not be completely dominated by these large-scale phenomena, but will also be significantly affected by local-scale circulation. Therefore, in 2026, extreme weather phenomena may be complex, volatile and need to be continuously monitored and updated regularly.
2025 recorded many phenomena breaking the rules. According to you, what are the causes of this situation and will that trend continue in 2026 as well as in the future?
- To date, we have clearly seen the impacts and consequences of climate change, making weather and climate increasingly extreme, unstable and abnormal. We cannot be sure when extreme natural disasters will occur, but it is almost certain that the frequency, intensity and extreme level of bad weather phenomena will continue to increase in the future, not only in 2026.
Therefore, closely monitoring weather developments and regularly updating forecast bulletins, especially short-term forecasts, is extremely necessary to proactively respond.
Thank you very much, sir!
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