Typically, to be confirmed as El Nino, seawater temperatures in a certain area of the tropical Pacific must be at least 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than the long-term average.
Meanwhile, super El Nino occurs when the increase exceeds 2 degrees Celsius compared to the average. Some reliable computer models, such as the European model, are predicting this scenario may occur this time.
Currently, a large amount of unusually warm water is spreading under the ocean surface from the west to the east of the tropical Pacific Ocean. This water mass is gradually rising to the sea surface, a clear sign that El Nino 2026 is forming. Waves of wind blowing from west to east have contributed to transporting this warm water.
Early detection of El Nino and forecasting the diễn biến of this phenomenon "helps us have early warnings about weather-related risks, including floods, droughts, heat, storms and strong thunderstorms," meteorologist Nat Johnson at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory said.
However, there is still much uncertainty about the upcoming El Nino, especially in intensity. Forecasts made in the spring are often less accurate than at other times of the year.
In the US, El Nino usually has the strongest impact in winter, when a series of storms can sweep into California and the southern region of the country, increasing the risk of flooding.
El Nino can also increase wind speeds in the upper atmosphere in the tropical Atlantic in the fall, causing windbreaks. Windbreaks can disrupt tropical storms and newly formed storms, thereby reducing the activity of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Strong El Nino waves are also linked to heat waves in the US and many parts of the world.
Globally, El Nino increases the possibility of drought and heat in Australia, while increasing the risk of forest fires. Other areas prone to drought include North South America (including part of the Amazon rainforest), Central and South Africa, as well as India.
Conversely, El Nino can also cause excessive heavy rain. Areas prone to flooding include southeastern South America, the Horn of Africa, Iran, Afghanistan and many places in South and Central Asia.
If a strong El Nino wave forms and lasts through the winter, it is almost certain that 2026, 2027 will set a record for the hottest year since observation data began in the 19th century.
The most recent El Nino (not super El Nino) has made 2024 the hottest year ever recorded. The most recent super El Nino occurred in the period 2015-2016, before that in 1997-1998 and 1982-1983.
Super El Nino is not an official term, but an unofficial term used by some weather forecasters and media to refer to extremely strong El Nino waves.
Meteorologists are currently closely monitoring the temperature of the Pacific Ocean to determine the intensity of El Nino this time. If the forecast of the European model is accurate, this could be the strongest El Nino in history.
