Since the beginning of the year, natural disasters in Vietnam have been complicated, unusual and tend to be more extreme than the average of many years, especially with the phenomenon of storms and floods.
Although the new cold air has not yet entered the main winter period, the intensity is quite strong, making many people think that it will "end" from summer to winter, ignoring the autumn period.
According to Dr. Truong Ba Kien - Deputy Director of the Center for Meteorological and Climate Research, Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change, in fact, this year is not winter coming earlier than usual, but the first cold spells of this year are stronger and the temperature drops more deeply, making people clearly feel the early winter.
Regarding temperature trends, according to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, in November, the average temperature in most areas across the country will generally be about 0.5 degrees Celsius lower than the average of many years; in particular, the provinces from Nghe An to Hue will generally be 0.5 - 1 degree Celsius lower than the average of many years in the same period.
"Currently, atmospheric and ocean conditions reflect ENSO being in a La Nina state. This winter is forecast to start at the average time of many years but the intensity of the monsoon is stronger than the average of many years and the average temperature is lower than the winter of 2024" - Dr. Truong Ba Kien analyzed.
The meteorological agency also forecasts that in November 2025, cold air will continue to increase in frequency and intensity. The phenomenon of severe cold in the North is likely to appear from the second half of December (equivalent to the average of many years).
"It is noteworthy that the intensity of cold air may be stronger and longer, especially in the period from December 2025 to January 2026, when La Nina peaks. The number of cold air waves flooding into Vietnam may be higher, some of which are likely to cause severe cold in the North" - Mr. Kien said.
The meteorological researcher emphasized that due to the influence of La Nina, it is necessary to closely monitor unseasonal rain in the Central region.
"La Nina also increases the northeast monsoon, causing drizzle and moist fog in the North and North Central regions to appear early and persistently in the first half of the 2026 spring" - Mr. Kien said.
Also around the end of the year, storms and tropical depressions continue to operate. The main affected area is likely to be the Central region.
Both storms/tropical depressions and cold air can cause heavy rain. In particular, the interaction between these two models can cause complex effects.
Data analyzed from the meteorological agency also shows that in November, the total rainfall in the Northern, Thanh Hoa and Southern regions will generally be approximately the same as the average of many years in the Northwest region, 10 - 30% lower than the average of many years. The remaining areas across the country have total rainfall generally 10 - 25% higher than the average of many years, especially the area south of Quang Tri to Dak Lak has the possibility of total rainfall 25 - 40% higher than the average of many years in the same period.
From now until the first half of December 2025, moderate and heavy rains are likely to continue to appear in the Central region, concentrated in the area from Ha Tinh to Da Nang, Khanh Hoa and the eastern areas of the provinces from Quang Ngai to Dak Lak.
The meteorological agency said that the western part of Lam Dong province and the Southern region in November are likely to have many days of showers and thunderstorms; in which, some days may have moderate to heavy rain.
