Today (April 17), the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment sent an official dispatch to the National Steering Committee for Civil Defense on the El Nino phenomenon and an early assessment of the possibility of water shortage.
Accordingly, monitoring data and climate forecast models show that the ENSO system is shifting phases from La Nina to neutral and is likely to shift to El Nino in the period from June 2026 - August 2026 with a probability of 80 - 90%, then continue to develop and is likely to reach intensity from moderate to strong by the end of 2026. In which, the possibility of very strong El Nino appearing (probably from 20 - 25%) in the period from October 2026 - December 2026 and possibly extending to 2027 is not ruled out.
Although long-term forecasting models still have certain uncertainties, to serve the timely direction and administration of disaster prevention and control and socio-economic development.
In Vietnam, dry and hot conditions have appeared early from the beginning of 2026; hot weather increased earlier than the multi-year average. Rainfall from the beginning of the year to mid-April 2026 is generally depleted by 10 - 40% compared to the multi-year average across the country. Flow and water levels in many river basins have fallen to the lowest levels in the same period of monitoring. This is an early warning sign of the risk of water shortage right from the beginning of the season.
In the coming time, if El Nino forms according to the forecast scenario, the average temperature across the country tends to be higher than normal, the number of hot days increases, intensity is more intense than in 2025. Rainfall is likely to be depleted right in the dry season months of 2026, especially the period from the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2027, with a common decrease of 25 - 50%. At the same time, the rainy season is likely to end early.
Water sources in river basins are likely to continue to decline; large reservoirs, especially on the Da River system, the total flow from May 2026 to July 2026 is likely to be depleted by 10 - 25% compared to the multi-year average, with a high risk of water shortage due to reduced flow from outside the territory combined with water rain shortage, posing risks affecting downstream water supply and energy security.
The official dispatch clearly states the high risk of drought and saltwater intrusion, especially in the South Central Coast, Central Highlands and Mekong Delta in the dry season of 2026 - 2027, and water shortages may occur widely in the first months of 2027.
It is noteworthy that during El Nino periods, although total rainfall decreases, there may still be localized heavy rains, extreme rains in a short time causing flash floods, landslides, urban flooding. Storm and tropical depression activity in the East Sea tends to be less than the multi-year average, but it is necessary to prevent strong storms with complex trajectories, difficult to predict and causing major impacts in a short time.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment will continue to direct forecasting units to closely monitor meteorology and hydrology developments, especially the ENSO situation, water sources and dangerous weather phenomena; promptly update and issue forecast and warning bulletins to serve the direction and administration of the Government, ministries, branches and localities.
