The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has forecast the weather trend for the seasonal period (from May - October 2026). In which, noteworthy information is the forecast of ENSO trend and the activity of storms and tropical depressions in the first months of the season.
Regarding ENSO developments, according to Mr. Nguyen Duc Hoa - Deputy Head of the Climate Forecasting Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, ENSO is in a neutral state. It is forecasted that in the next three months, the ENSO phenomenon will remain in a neutral state with a low probability and increase the probability of transitioning to El Nino state to a high level.
In the period from August to October 2026, ENSO tends to maintain El Nino state with a probability of about 80 - 90%, while the probability of being in a neutral state decreases with a probability of only about 10 - 20%" - Mr. Hoa said.
ENSO is one of the important bases in forecasting climate trends, especially the storm and flood season globally and in Vietnam.
Regarding the storm season, Mr. Nguyen Duc Hoa said that the forecast from May - July 2026, storms/tropical depressions operating in the East Sea area and directly affecting the mainland are higher than the multi-year average. According to multi-year average data in the period from May to July in the East Sea, there are about 3.2 storms/tropical depressions, making landfall 1.2 storms.
From August to October 2026, storms/tropical depressions will operate in the East Sea area and directly affect the mainland at a lower level than the multi-year average. According to multi-year average data in the period from August to October in the East Sea, there are about 6.8 storms/tropical depressions, making landfall 2.8 storms.
Regarding the activity of tropical cyclones throughout the storm season, previously, the meteorological agency said that the forecast number of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea tends to be lower than in 2025, approximately or lower than the multi-year average. According to multi-year average data, there are about 12.7 storms in the East Sea, of which 5.1 storms make landfall.
According to Mr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Department of Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, it is forecasted that in 2026, the atmosphere-ocean system will undergo many phase transition states.
With the continuous phase transition nature of such a large-scale ENSO phenomenon, atmospheric - ocean conditions will be unstable. This may be the cause of extreme weather and climate phenomena. This year, it is necessary to pay special attention to the risk of strong, even very strong storms, rapidly intensifying (potential super typhoon risk), complex orbits and operating times, difficult to predict" - Mr. Khiem warned.
Seasonal weather forecasting information is trend forecasting in nature. The meteorological agency especially emphasized that in the context of climate change, weather, and climate are increasingly complicated with many dangerous and extreme forms such as heavy rain in a short time, flash floods, landslides...
Therefore, it is proposed to regularly update and integrate forecast information and hydrometeorological warnings in 1-3 day short-term bulletins, to promptly adjust production plans, appropriate response plans, especially appropriate reservoir operation plans, ensuring the safety of works and downstream areas, and at the same time ensuring safety for production and people's livelihoods.
