Typhoon Matmo follows two strong storms, Super Typhoon No. 9 Ragasa and Typhoon No. 10 Bualoi, into the East Sea. This shows the extreme complexity of this year's hurricane season.
This afternoon (October 3), Mr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Department of Hydro-Meteorology - provided the latest comments on storm Matmo.
Storm Matmo is likely to make landfall in Quang Ninh
* Mr. Mai Van Khiem, please tell us about the latest developments of storm Matmo; are international forecasts highly unified on the trajectory and intensity of the storm?
- Typhoon Matmo is the 21st storm to hit the Northwest Pacific. The name Matmo given by the United States, in Chamorro, means heavy rain. By noon on October 3, Typhoon Matmo was in the eastern coast of Luzon Island ( Philipines).
Currently, the forecast of the International Storm Forecast Centers is relatively consistent, predicting that on the evening of October 3, storm Matmo will move into the East Sea. By the afternoon and night of October 5, it will pass through the area between Hainan Island and Leizhou Peninsula (China) to enter the north of the Gulf of Tonkin. The intensity of the storm in the eastern area of the Lusian Peninsula (China) will be strong at level 12 - 13, when entering the Gulf of Tonkin, the storm will decrease to level 10, then it is likely to move to the mainland of Quang Ninh province and gradually weaken.
* So what is the forecast of the Vietnam Meteorological Agency, at what level is the strongest intensity of the storm and when can it reach its peak, sir?
- We predict that around the evening of October 3, Typhoon Matmo will cross the northern part of Luzon Island (Philippines) into the East Sea and become the 11th storm in the East Sea in 2025.
It is forecasted that after moving into the East Sea, the sea surface temperature will be relatively favorable (about 29 degrees Celsius), the wind shear in the northern area of the East Sea (where the center of storm Matmo moves in) will be small, favorable for the development of the storm.
Meanwhile, the subtropical high pressure, the shape that determines the speed of movement in the direction of storm Matmo, will move strongly to the west, causing storm Matmo to strengthen and move rapidly (average from 25-30km/h).
The maximum intensity of the storm could reach level 12-13, gusting to level 14-15 when it is east of the Lusian Peninsula (China).
Storm Matmo will cause heavy rain in the North
* Sir, what is the forecast scenario for the impact of the storm on the mainland of Vietnam?
- From the time the storm moves into the sea area of Guangdong province (China), the subtropical high pressure tongue tends to weaken, at this time there will be 2 moving scenarios for storm No. 11.
Scenario 1 (with a probability of about 70-75%) corresponding to the trend of the subtropical high pressure tongue weakening rapidly and retreating to the east, storm No. 11 will move more north, moving more on land (more similar to the path of storm No. 9).
When it reaches the northern area of Quang Ninh province, it will decrease by 2-4 degrees compared to the time of the strongest storm.
With this scenario in the Gulf of Tonkin, strong winds of level 9-10, mainland Quang Ninh-Hai Phong strong winds of level 8-9, and heavy rain in the North. The focus is on the midland and mountainous provinces of the North.
Scenario 2 is more extreme (with a probability of about 25-30%) when the subtropical high pressure weakens slightly, causing the storm to move mainly at sea, so it weakens less than scenario 1.
Therefore, the storm intensity when entering the Quang Ninh area will be stronger than scenario 1, possibly causing strong winds of level 9-10 (level 12-14), the impact will expand to the south (Quang Ninh - Ninh Binh provinces). The rain will also be heavier, the strong winds will also be deeper inland
The storm's mobility is also likely to change as the storm moves into the East Sea (so the scenarios will be clearer). Therefore, it is necessary to continuously update information about Typhoon Matmo.
Sincerely thank you!
