Latest update from the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, at 8:00 p.m., the center of the storm was at about 21.3 degrees north latitude; 109.3 degrees east longitude, about 140 km east of Mong Cai (Quang Ninh).
Storm No. 11 is about level 8-9 strong when making landfall
According to Mr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Department of Hydro-Meteorology, the storm intensity has decreased, currently strong at level 11, level 12, gust level 15.
It is forecasted that in the next 12 hours, the storm will move west-northwest at a speed of about 20 km/h.
"Storm No. 11 will continue to weaken by level 2-3 before making landfall in the area between Quang Ninh (Vietnam) and Guangxi (China) in the early morning of October 6" - Mr. Mai Van Khiem said.
At 7:00 a.m. on October 6, the center of the storm was at about 21.9 degrees north latitude; 107.3 degrees east longitude, on the mainland of Quang Tay province. The wind intensity decreased to level 8, gusting to level 10.
It is forecasted that in the next 24 hours, the storm will continue to move west-northwest at a speed of about 20 km/h, moving deep into the northern mountainous areas and weakening into a low pressure area.
At 7:00 p.m. on October 6, the center of the remaining low pressure area was at about 22.6 degrees north latitude; 105.0 degrees east longitude, in the northern mountainous area. Wind intensity below level 6.
After 11pm tonight, the wind in Quang Ninh will strengthen, some places will be level 8-9
Regarding the impact of the storm at sea, according to Mr. Khiem, the northwestern sea area of the northern East Sea is forecast to have strong winds of level 8 - 9, gusts of level 11, waves 4 - 6 m high, very rough seas, very dangerous for ships.
The northern area of the Gulf of Tonkin (including the special areas of Bach Long Vi, Van Don, Co To, Cat Hai and Hon Dau island) has strong winds of level 7 - 9, near the storm's eye level 10 - 12, gusts of level 15; waves 2 - 4 m high, near the storm's eye 3 - 5 m, rough seas, very dangerous for ships and boats.
Storm surge in coastal areas and islands in Quang Ninh - Hai Phong province is from 0.4 - 0.6 m. It is necessary to be on guard against flooding in low-lying coastal areas, river mouths due to rising water and big waves on the night of October 5 and early morning of October 6.
On land, from the night of October 5 to noon of October 6, the coastal mainland area from Quang Ninh to Hung Yen and Lang Son province will have winds gradually increasing to level 6 - 7, the area near the storm center will have level 8 - 9, gusting to level 11 - 12. The deep inland area east of the North has strong winds of level 4 - 5, some places have level 6, gusting to level 7 - 8.
"From around 10pm on the night of October 5, the coastal waters of Quang Ninh - Hai Phong will start to have strong winds of level 6. After 11pm, the storm wind will increase to level 7 - 8, especially in Mong Cai area, there is a possibility of strong winds of level 8 - 9, gusting to level 11 - 12" - Mr. Khiem said.
Communes and wards in the northeastern area of Quang Ninh province are likely to have strong winds of level 8 - 9, gusting to level 11 - 12; The remaining communes and wards of Quang Ninh province and the coastal city of Hai Phong have strong winds of level 7 - 8, gusting to level 10; the coastal area of Hung Yen province and the northern border area of Lang Son province have strong winds of level 6 - 7, gusting to level 9; the northeastern area of Bac Ninh province (old Bac Giang province) and the east of Cao Bang province have strong winds of level 6, gusting to level 8.
"Further impacts need to be noted on widespread heavy rain in the Northern region from the night of October 5 to the end of the night of October 7. The focus is on the midlands and northern mountainous areas. Rainfall is generally from 150 - 250mm, locally over 400mm in the area from Quang Ninh, Lang Son to Tuyen Quang, Lao Cai, Cao Bang... In the Northern Delta, the common rainfall is 70 - 150mm, locally over 200mm" - Mr. Khiem analyzed.
According to Mr. Khiem, the Hanoi area is less likely to be directly affected by storms, but beware of thunderstorms, whirlwinds and strong gusts of wind. From early morning of October 6 to the end of October 7, there will be moderate rain, heavy rain, common rainfall of 70 - 120 mm, locally over 150 mm.
With such a large amount of rain, the Director of the meteorological agency said that it could cause a major flood in the river system in the North, which could raise to alert level 2, alert level 3, and in some places above alert level 3. At the same time, flood flow to reservoirs may increase due to the impact of storm No. 11, it should be noted from October 6 to 9, especially in the northern reservoirs such as Thac Ba Lake, Tuyen Quang Lake, Hoa Binh Lake...
"Another issue that needs to be paid close attention to is the risk of flash floods and landslides. We all know that storm No. 10 Bualoi also caused a very heavy rain in the midlands and northern mountainous areas with rainfall of up to 200 - 300mm. Most areas have saturated soil moisture, the soil is flooded, many places have had landslides; there is a potential risk of flow congestion after the recent heavy rain" - Mr. Khiem warned.
The meteorological agency noted that due to the influence of a wide storm circulation, it is necessary to be on guard against the risk of thunderstorms, tornadoes and strong gusts of wind both before and during the storm's landfall.
