According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, in the first half of October 2024, the total rainfall nationwide was generally 30-60% deficient. The Northeast, North Central and Central Highlands regions had a rainfall deficit of 60-90%; the mountainous Northwest and the Southern regions had rainfall approximately equal to or higher than 15-30%, in some places over 80%.
Rainfall is forecast to fluctuate in the regions in the last months of 2024.
According to Mr. Vu Anh Tuan - Deputy Head of Weather Forecast Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the total rainfall forecast from November to December across the country is approximately the same as the average of many years.
However, in the Central Central and South Central provinces alone, total rainfall may be about 10 - 30% higher.
According to the statistical model of the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change, the total rainfall forecast from November 2024 to January 2025 is likely to be approximately equal to or higher than the average of many years in the Northwest, South Central, and South, with a common probability of 44 to over 77%.
Rainfall is lower than or approximately the average of many years in the east of the Northeast, the Northern Delta, the North Central Coast, and the Central Highlands with a probability of over 44%.
"November is still the peak rainy month in the Central region, especially in the Central Central provinces. From late November to early December, rain may spread to the South Central provinces," said Mr. Tuan.
Currently, the ENSO phenomenon is in a neutral state but gradually leaning towards the cold phase. The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting predicts that from November 2024 to January 2025, ENSO is likely to transition to La Nina state with a probability of 60 - 70%. La Nina activity is likely to impact the rainy season in the regions.
"The rainy season in the Central, Central Highlands and Southern regions continues to last longer and ends later than usual. Due to the influence of La Nina, the rainy season in the Central Highlands and Southern regions is likely to last until the end of November; in the Central Central and South Central provinces, the rainy season may last until the end of December" - Mr. Vu Anh Tuan provided forecast information.
