According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, around this evening, October 3, storm Matmo will enter the East Sea and become storm No. 11. From the time the storm moves into the sea area of Guangdong province (China), the subtropical high pressure tongue tends to weaken, at this time there will be 2 moving scenarios for storm No. 11.
Scenario 1 (with a probability of about 70 - 75%) corresponding to the trend of the subtropical high pressure tongue weakening rapidly and retreating to the east, storm No. 11 will move more north, moving more on land (more similar to the path of storm No. 9).
When it reaches the northern area of Quang Ninh province, it will decrease by 2 - 4 levels compared to the time of the strongest storm.
With this scenario, in the Gulf of Tonkin, there will be strong winds of level 9 - 10, mainland Quang Ninh - Hai Phong will have strong winds of level 8 - 9, and there will be heavy rain in the North. The focus is on the midland and mountainous provinces of the North.
Scenario 2 is more extreme (with a probability of about 25 - 30%) when the subtropical high pressure weakens slightly, causing the storm to move mainly at sea, so it weakens less than scenario 1.
Therefore, the storm intensity when entering the Quang Ninh area will be stronger than scenario 1, possibly causing strong winds of level 9 - 10 (level 12 - 14), the impact will expand to the south (Quang Ninh - Ninh Binh provinces). The rain will also be heavier, and the strong winds will also be deeper inland.
However, regardless of the scenario, the North is likely to experience heavy rain due to the storm.
The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that from the night of October 5 to the end of the night of October 7, the Northern region, Thanh Hoa and Nghe An will have heavy to very heavy rain with common rainfall of 100 - 200mm, locally over 300mm. In the mountainous and midland areas of the North, it is generally from 150 - 250mm, locally over 400mm. Warning of the risk of heavy rain with rainfall greater than 200mm within 3 hours.
The warning level of natural disaster risk due to heavy rain, tornadoes, lightning, and hail is level 1. Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding in low-lying areas, urban and industrial areas; flash floods on small rivers and streams, landslides on steep slopes.
Real-time warning information for areas at risk of flash floods and landslides is provided online on the website of the Department of Hydrometeorology at: https://luquetsatlo.nchmf.gov.vn and in a separate bulletin warning of flash floods and landslides.
From October 6 to 9, the North, Thanh Hoa, Nghe An will experience a flood, with flood peaks on rivers ranging from above alert level 2 to above alert level 3.
The meteorological agency emphasized that the storm's mobility is likely to change when the storm moves into the East Sea - at this time the forecast scenario will be clearer. Therefore, information about Typhoon Matmo will be continuously updated.
